In May, Vietnam’s Ministry of Finance said the country’s official digital-asset exchange could see its first activity as early as the third quarter of 2026, with five companies making preparations.

Vo Dinh Tri, a lecturer from University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City, put the odds of a working exchange within 12 months at very low in early September, with three reasons.

The operational rules are the real obstacle as platforms must reach the top information-security tier, level four. The platforms must also build anti-money-laundering, know-your-customer and complaints systems, all appraised by the Ministry of Public Security.

And even a firm clearing those conditions faces a harder test of profitability. He clarified that the Vietnamese market is smaller than the headline numbers suggest, with most Vietnamese traders in long and short positions and few local assets to trade.

Alex Phan, a veteran investor, noted the same barriers. Operators must hold minimum charter capital of VND10,000 billion ($400 million), on top of the level-four security standard meant to protect everyone on the platform. “Not every business is ready for that,” he said.

The math rarely works for foreign operators, and some have already withdrawn. The biggest exchanges register market by market, Phan said. However, Vietnam demands more, including the capital, security, and full disclosure of their customer base-something they can often avoid elsewhere.

Enforcement could also shape demand. Foreign platforms are not yet banned, Vo said. But once a licensed domestic exchange exists, a six-month transition follows, and investors still using offshore venues after it ends would be in violation.

The prize explains the effort. Phan estimates 17 million Vietnamese now hold digital assets, about 1.7 times the 10.5 million securities accounts built over two decades. Citing Chainalysis, he puts recent annual crypto volume near $120 billion, most of it offshore. Vietnam ranks among the world’s top five for crypto adoption, he added.

Five applicants have filed valid paperwork, all backed by major banks or conglomerates, namely VPBank-linked CAEX, Techcombank-tied TCEX, VIX Securities-backed VIXEX, LPBank-ecosystem SCEX, and a Sun Group-owned venture.

Vietnam can launch digital asset exchange in Q3 this year, says Deputy Minister