Grab’s profitability strengthened in the third quarter of 2026, with group adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rising 73 percent year on year, prompting Maybank Investment Bank Research to raise its earnings forecasts and target price for the Southeast Asian superapp operator.

In a research note on Wednesday, Maybank said Grab’s adjusted EBITDA growth outpaced its 27 percent revenue expansion, with all three of its core business segments turning profitable for the first time.

The stronger performance has improved earnings visibility and shifted the investment debate towards whether the company’s share price adequately reflects its improving earnings trajectory, although competition, reinvestment requirements and potential disruption from artificial intelligence (AI)-led commerce remain risks.

Maybank raised its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for financial years 2026 to 2028 by 8 percent to 9 percent, while its net profit after tax (NPAT) estimates were increased by 10 percent to 22 percent.

The research house maintained its “buy” recommendation on Grab and raised its target price to $4.60.

According to the note, deliveries was the strongest contributor to the improvement in profitability, with adjusted EBITDA increasing 58 percent year on year to $123 million in the third quarter, compared with 21 percent growth in gross merchandise value (GMV).

The segment’s adjusted EBITDA margin, measured against GMV, improved by 65 basis points year on year to 2.7 percent, equivalent to about $29 million in additional quarterly adjusted EBITDA compared with maintaining the previous year’s margin.

Maybank attributed the improvement to operating leverage from higher transaction volumes, better advertising monetisation and AI-enabled marketplace optimization.

The margin expansion was achieved despite higher driver incentives amid elevated fuel costs, which Maybank said provided stronger evidence of improving underlying unit economics rather than profitability gains driven solely by lower promotional spending.

Management also highlighted resilient demand, with growth exceeding 20% in several major food-delivery markets despite softer consumer spending across Southeast Asia.

The research house said the growth was likely supported by greater penetration of affordable delivery offerings, higher transaction frequency, Thailand’s supportive demand environment and expansion in grocery deliveries.

Grocery is emerging as an increasingly important growth driver for the segment. Management said grocery GMV was growing 1.8 times faster than food delivery, while customers using both GrabFood and GrabMart accounted for 43 percent of food GMV and had average baskets about 10% larger.

Maybank said the figures suggested Grab was capturing a greater share of spending from existing customers rather than relying entirely on new customer acquisition.

Advertising is also expected to contribute to delivery margins. Grab reported a 39 percent year-on-year increase in quarterly active self-service advertisers and a 13 percent rise in their average spending, indicating growth in both its advertiser base and spending per advertiser.

Advertising penetration currently stands at about 2 percent of GMV, with potential to reach 3 percent by 2028, according to the research note.

Based on Maybank’s forecast of $23.2 billion in deliveries GMV in FY28, every additional 10 basis points of advertising penetration would represent about $23 million in annual advertising revenue before associated costs.

A hypothetical increase in advertising penetration from 2 percent to 3 percent would therefore generate an additional $232 million in annual revenue at that GMV level, although Maybank stressed that this was a sensitivity analysis rather than an additional earnings forecast.

The expansion of GrabMall into branded retail categories could provide another growth avenue by leveraging the company’s food and grocery delivery infrastructure. However, Maybank said the economics remained unproven, as higher basket values could be offset by lower commission rates, subsidies and greater fulfilment complexity.

The research house expects Deliveries adjusted EBITDA margins of 2.5 percent, 2.8 percent and 3.3 percent in FY26, FY27 and FY28, respectively. Near-term profitability could be affected by increased consumer and merchant incentives, as well as investments in GrabMart and GrabMall.

Meanwhile, Grab’s Financial Services segment recorded its first positive adjusted EBITDA of $12 million in the third quarter, compared with Maybank’s forecast loss of $2.5 million.

Digital bank Superbank contributed approximately $8 million to $9 million of the segment’s adjusted EBITDA, with the remainder coming from other financial services businesses, including Stash.

Gross loans increased 200 percent year on year to $2.7 billion, or 115 percent excluding Superbank, reflecting strong lending momentum across the business.

Maybank noted that group net impairment losses on financial assets rose 57 percent year on year to $58 million, a more moderate increase than loan growth. The amount was also broadly unchanged from the average quarterly level in the first half of 2026.

However, the 90-day non-performing loan (NPL) ratio increased to 2.6 percent from 2.2 percent in the second quarter, while expected credit loss reserves remained 2.4 times the value of NPLs.

Maybank said Superbank’s consolidation had favourably influenced the group’s provisioning profile, while the relationship between loan growth and impairment losses suggested that provisioning growth was lagging lending expansion.

Management expects the loan book to reach about $3 billion by end-2026 and exceed $6 billion by 2028, including Atome.

The proposed Atome acquisition could broaden Grab’s consumer-lending exposure beyond its existing ecosystem, while Stash’s AI-driven lending capabilities could support the expansion of digital lending across Southeast Asia.

Management has set a target of $500 million in Financial Services adjusted EBITDA by FY28, including approximately $300 million from Atome and Superbank combined. Maybank’s FY28 forecast stands at $194 million, substantially below management’s target, as its estimates have yet to incorporate Atome.

The research house said the earlier-than-expected profitability improvement provided a more tangible earnings foundation for Financial Services, although the integration of Atome and regional deployment of Stash’s lending capabilities remained important execution milestones.

Beyond its core businesses, Grab’s partnership with Meta’s Muse also presents opportunities and risks as AI increasingly influences online shopping and customer interactions.

Grab is among Muse’s initial partners in Singapore, with the integration currently limited to GrabMart and Grab Dine Out rather than its core food-delivery and mobility businesses.

Through the integration, Muse can assemble grocery baskets through a conversational interface, with customers completing their purchases on Grab. This allows Grab to retain control over merchant relationships, inventory, transaction data and fulfilment.

Maybank views the arrangement as an additional customer acquisition channel, although its potential contribution to GMV remains too early to quantify.

The research house noted that the wider adoption of AI assistants could shift product discovery and purchasing decisions away from individual platforms, potentially weakening Grab’s direct customer relationships if competitors pursue deeper integrations.

Nevertheless, Grab’s merchant network, fulfilment infrastructure and payment capabilities could remain relevant even as customer discovery increasingly takes place through external AI platforms.

On its financial position, Grab repurchased $400 million of shares in September and October, with another $500 million remaining under its share buyback program.

Its trailing 12-month adjusted free cash flow nearly doubled year on year to $533 million, while net cash liquidity stood at $5 billion at the end of the third quarter.

Maybank said the strong liquidity position provided room for Grab to continue investing in driver supply, affordability and new products while returning capital to shareholders.

Grab also raised its FY26 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance by about 1 percent and 9 percent, respectively, at the midpoint.

Following the third-quarter results, Maybank raised its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for FY26, FY27 and FY28 by 8 percent, 9 percent and 7 percent to $803 million, $1.13 billion and $1.44 billion, respectively.

Its NPAT estimates for the same financial years were increased by 22 percent, 10 percent and 10 percent.

The research house expects group adjusted EBITDA to grow approximately 41 percent in FY27 and 28 percent in FY28, supported by improving delivery margins and stronger contributions from financial services.

Grab revenue rises 27% to $1.1B in Q3, adjusted EBITDA hits record $237M