Maybank Investment Bank said Monday that Sea’s recent weakness has offered an attractive entry point to investors.

The research house said in a note that with the stock now 37 percent below 2025’s peak, it believes Brazil and margin-related risks are largely priced in, while easing competitive pressures in Taiwan — following Coupang’s cyber incident and management changes — are incrementally positive.

In contrast to early 2025, it noted Shopee’s 2026 seller take-rate adjustments in ASEAN have been modest but broadly within expectation.

“While some concerns persist, we do not view them as sufficiently incremental to justify the recent de-rating,” said the research house.

It is noted that Sea’s share price has retraced sharply, giving up all its early-2026 gains and falling about 13 percent in the past six trading sessions.

“Following our Jan 2 upgrade, our investor discussions have focused on questions around the rationale for higher seller commissions in Brazil and the lack of near-term catalysts ahead of highly anticipated 2026 Shopee margin guidance,” said Maybank.

According to the research house, investor discussions have centered on three key issues on Sea.

First, there is limited clarity on the rationale for Shopee raising seller commissions in Brazil — particularly for low-ticket items where Shopee has historically been strongest.

The lack of similar moves by competitors raises concerns around potential gross merchandise value (GMV) growth deceleration in Brazil amid intense competition.

Second, investors are awaiting formal 2026 guidance, as management’s earlier cautious commentary on margin expansion has led to questions over whether 2026 margins could remain flat versus 2025.

Buy-side expectations for 2026 margins appear below sell-side assumptions of about 1 percent adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA)-to-GMV.

“Few investors worry about a scenario of mid-teens GMV growth and stable 2026 margins, which in our view is highly unlikely,” said the research house.

Maybank expects 20 percent Shopee GMV growth in 2026 and a 30 basis points margin expansion in 2026 to 1 percent given stable ASEAN dynamics and easing Taiwan concerns.

Third, while the $1 billion share buyback announcement was welcomed by investors, they are awaiting greater clarity on the scale and pace of execution.

Meanwhile, Maybank forecasts Sea’s FY24-27E revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25 percent, driven by all the three business segments.

The firm’s adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow at a 42 percent CAGR, helped by e-commerce business and digital financial services.

It is noted that the firm’s cash balance as of the second quarter of 2025 stood at $10.6 billion.

Maybank also estimates Sea’s ASEAN GMV to grow at a 19 percent CAGR over 2030.

“Its own logistics and strong balance sheet remains key competitive moat,

“Risk of TikTok disruption is abating while cross-border platforms have unfavorable unit economics in ASEAN,” said the research house.

Although Sea’s gaming business is highly dependent on Free Fire, Maybank sees it is a defensive franchise with its position in less crowded and budget conscious emerging markets.

According to Maybank, Sea’s recent sell-off may due to broader weakness for pre-earnings growth companies amid hawkish Federal Reserve outlook.

It added that it may be due to concerns of normalizing growth for Garena Free Fire, and linked to Shopee margin improvement concerns.

For Maybank, Sea’s upside included stronger-than-expected user growth (across all businesses); share buybacks; seller take rate increases and ad penetration leading to
better than expected margins improvements.

The firm’s downside risks included weaker-than-expected consumer spending in the region amid macro uncertainties hurting Shopee’s GMV growth; slowing user growth metrics, especially if this is due to increasing competition across Southeast Asia’s offerings; higher-than-expected credit costs for SeaMoney due to a slowdown in economic growth; new entrants which could intensify competition in the Southeast Asia e-commerce industry.

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