Maybank Investment Bank said Friday that it sees minimal pushback from the second round of seller commission raise from Sea‘s e-commerce arm Shopee.
The research house said in a note that its its regional surveys (conducted in April to May) suggests limited volume disruption and a high degree of pass-through to buyers.
According to its ecommerce buyer and seller survey, only about 13 percent of ASEAN consumers reported cutting online spending following recent price/fee moves, with most respondents still regarding online channels as relatively cheaper — and a material share reallocating spend to essentials (defensive categories).
Seller sentiment also looks manageable as survey snapshots show roughly two-thirds of merchants are neutral to positive on fee adjustments and expecting to pass future increases through to buyers rather than absorb them.
Maybank noted that those behavioral responses help explain why platforms can raise take rates without large gross merchandise value (GMV) downside in the near term.
“We lift Shopee adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA)/ GMV by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage point (ppt) for FY26 to FY27,” it said.
This is under the assumption that management continues to redeploy most incremental commission receipts to support traffic and merchant services.
Factoring in a higher seller commission, it raised its Shopee adjusted EBITDA by 6 percent to 8 percent for FY26-27.
Shopee has implemented another round of seller commission increases across key ASEAN markets over the past 2–3 months.
The changes average about 1 to 1.5ppt, varying by category and market.
This marks the second significant repricing wave within the past 12 months.
The move reflects Shopee’s ongoing shift in take-rate mix toward more sustainable monetization.
Importantly, this is an industry-wide adjustment rather than an isolated Shopee move as TikTok Shop and Lazada have made similar fee increases during the same period, a pattern consistent with rationalization of competition.
According to Maybank, Sea’s bigger monetization could accrue in the form of a bigger and faster offline-to-online transition, thereby expanding TAM; and across its fintech business through services like buy now pay later (BNPL) etc which offers higher take rates.
“ASEAN take-rates remain below many global peers, implying further room to normalize over time without breaching competitive thresholds — though execution and market-by-market elasticity will determine the pace,” said the research house.
Maybank has also raised Sea’s gaming arm Garena adjusted EBITDA by 15 percent to 25 percent for FY25-27, assuming superior growth and lower costs, helped by artificial intelligence (AI) related initiatives.
“We expect a strong third quarter on the back of IP collaborations with Netflix’s Squid Game and Naruto Shippuden,” it said.
It is noted that that in the first quarter, the company’s Naruto Shippuden collaboration was a resounding success, leading to more than 50 percent year on year bookings growth for Garena.
Other titles like Delta Force and Free City are in the early stages, undergoing fine-tuning.
Maybank has also raised its Garena bookings estimates by 1 percent to 5 percent for FY25-27 as it now factors in the company to grow at 6 percent to 8 percent over FY26-27 on top of its 31 percent estimated growth for FY25.
“Garena has long faced investor concerns over its high reliance on the eight year-old Free Fire franchise — raising risks if user interest wanes,
“Yet the company has kept Free Fire evergreen through creative localization (e.g. India’s Sholay tie-in) and high-profile collaborations like Squid Game and Naruto, sustaining engagement and growth,” it said.
With other SEA business segments now self-funding, Maybank highlighted Garena is reinvesting in expansion, evidenced by its increased game release cadence and new titles like Free City, a GTAstyle sandbox.
Meanwhile, broader adoption of AI in game development is driving faster content iteration & healthier long-term margins.