Uber’s proposed $15 billion acquisition of Delivery Hero could mark the ride-hailing giant’s return to Southeast Asia eight years after exiting the region, potentially reshaping competition across ASEAN’s on-demand services market, Maybank Investment Bank Research said Monday.
The research house said in a note that the transaction could be more than a food delivery deal, with several elements suggesting Uber may be preserving strategic options for a longer-term operating presence in ASEAN.
A key indication is Uber’s decision to exclude Foodpanda’s Southeast Asian operations from the divestment of Delivery Hero’s overlapping markets to SSW Partners to facilitate regulatory approval.
Maybank noted that Foodpanda’s ASEAN business is estimated to be worth less than $1 billion, a relatively small portion of the US$15 billion transaction.
“In our view, had Uber considered these assets non-strategic, they could have been included in the divestment package,” Maybank said, adding that the move suggests Uber intends to retain strategic flexibility in the region.
However, the research house said the biggest hurdle remains the existing non-compete agreement between Uber and Grab.
Based on discussions with Grab, the agreement remains in force, and if both parties cannot mutually amend it, Uber may need to restructure its relationship with Grab, including potentially reducing or exiting its 13.5% stake in the company.
Such a move could open the door for Uber to make a more meaningful return to ASEAN, potentially expanding beyond food delivery into mobility — its core global business.
According to Maybank Foodpanda’s regional position has weakened in recent years as Grab strengthened its dominance and ShopeeFood emerged as a fast-growing competitor.
Foodpanda’s regional gross merchandise value (GMV) has remained broadly flat at around $2.5 billion to $2.7 billion since 2022, while its market share nearly halved from about 22 percent in 2021 to around 11 percent in 2025.
In comparison, Grab expanded its delivery GMV by almost 65 percent over the same period and maintained its leadership position, while ShopeeFood recorded strong growth.
Despite the decline, Foodpanda retains strategic importance due to its presence in key ASEAN markets, including Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines, where it commands around 22 percent to 35 percent market share.
Maybank said Delivery Hero’s decision to reassess its Southeast Asian footprint reflects the challenges facing Foodpanda, with the company having explored strategic alternatives for parts of its ASEAN operations and exited Thailand in 2025.
Maybank outlined two possible outcomes from Uber’s proposed acquisition.
Under a mildly negative scenario, Uber completes the deal and continues operating Foodpanda in Southeast Asia after reaching an agreement with Grab on the non-compete arrangement.
In this scenario, Maybank does not expect Uber to pursue aggressive market share expansion through subsidies, but instead leverage its global technology capabilities, merchant relationships and advertising platform to stabilize Foodpanda’s position.
This could limit Grab’s future growth rather than cause significant market share losses.
Maybank estimates that if Grab’s delivery GMV growth slows to industry levels instead of outperforming the market, its long-term delivery GMV forecasts could fall by about 15 percent, translating into around 5 percent downside to its sum-of-the-parts (SoTP) valuation.
A more disruptive scenario would emerge if Uber restructures its relationship with Grab and rebuilds a broader consumer ecosystem in ASEAN.
Maybank said Uber’s global strategy under chief executive officer Dara Khosrowshahi has shifted towards profitable growth, marketplace density and disciplined capital allocation, favoring scaled platforms rather than prolonged competition through heavy subsidies.
If Uber returns with Foodpanda as a foundation, it could eventually expand into mobility services in ASEAN, creating a direct challenge to Grab’s ride-hailing business.
The research house estimated that a more competitive environment could reduce Grab’s SoTP valuation to $5.55 per share from its base case of $6.25.
In a more adverse scenario involving slower GMV growth and limited margin expansion, valuation could fall to US$4.61 per share, representing about 26 percent downside.
Maybank maintained its “Buy” call on Grab, saying it is too early to incorporate a more negative competitive scenario into forecasts as the outcome depends on regulatory approval, the non-compete agreement and Uber’s long-term strategy.
However, the transaction introduces two key risks for Grab — the potential return of a well-capitalized competitor and possible selling pressure if Uber reduces its 13.5 percent stake in the company.
Maybank noted that previous share sales by SoftBank, which reduced its stake in Grab between late 2023 and mid-2025, had weighed on investor sentiment despite improving fundamentals.
Within ASEAN internet stocks, Maybank said Sea remains its preferred investment choice, citing resilient growth in Shopee, opportunities from Garena and Monee, and potential upside from artificial intelligence-driven monetization.
Sea is trading at around 12 times FY27 estimated enterprise value-to-EBITDA, representing a 20 percent to 30 percent discount to global marketplace peers, offering room for further valuation re-rating, the research house said.
“While Grab remains a Buy, we believe the balance of risk-reward within ASEAN internet is currently more compelling in Sea,” Maybank said.
Last week, Uber has entered into a business combination agreement with Delivery Hero, extending the world’s largest mobility and delivery platform to a total of 99 markets, with combined pro-forma gross bookings of $236 billion in 2025.
Under the terms of the voluntary takeover offer, Uber will offer Delivery Hero shareholders cash consideration of €41.50 per share, representing an equity value of $14.8 billion (implied for 100 percent of the company), or $13.7 billion adjusted for Uber’s prior stake purchases.
Delivery Hero has also entered into a separate agreement with SSW Partners, a New York-based investment firm that has led cross-border investments alongside global businesses.
SSW will acquire Delivery Hero’s businesses in a total of 14 markets, particularly where Uber Eats and Delivery Hero already overlap, for a consideration of approximately $1.6 billion.
Uber will not acquire control over the businesses transferred to SSW, and SSW will independently lead the process to find strategic partners that best position those businesses for long-term success.
“By bringing our platforms together, we will extend affordable, reliable delivery to many millions more people in many of the world’s most dynamic economies, while creating more opportunities for merchants and couriers,
“Together, we’ll nearly double the number of markets where we offer both mobility and delivery services, scaling a proven platform that we believe will create significant long-term value for our customers and shareholders,” said Dara Khosrowshahi.