While the Philippine automotive industry sales remain under pressure, Maybank Investment Bank sees electric vehicles remain a key growth in the sector.

The research house said in a note on Monday that while industry auto sales declined 12 percent year on year in the first four months of 2026, electrified vehicles (xEV) sales surged 158 percent year on year, lifting xEV penetration to about 13 percent.

“In our view, the widening gap reflects accelerating EV adoption, supported by broader model availability, charging infrastructure expansion, and supportive policy initiatives,” it noted.

According to the note, hybrid electric vehicle (HEVs) remain dominant at about 70 percent of xEV sales, supporting Toyota Motor Philippines Corporation (TMP)’s multi-pathway strategy and upcoming launches across multiple price points, including the Urban Cruiser, AllNew RAV4 Hybrid, Hybrid Land Cruiser, and Land Cruiser FJ.

“We think future market share gains are likely to favor manufacturers with competitive electrified portfolios,” said the research house.

Momentum also extends beyond official Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines, Inc. (CAMPI)/Truck Manufacturers Association (TMA) data, with BYD appearing to gain share in the mass-market segment.

Maybank estimated 7 percent to 8 percent market share and more than 35,000 unit sales by 2026, supported by its positioning in the PHP 1 million ($16,274)-PHP 2 million ($32,548) EV segment.

“Department of Energy (DOE) initiatives around charging infrastructure, streamlined approvals, and fuel-efficiency standards could further support EV adoption beyond 2026,” it added.

While overall industry-wide auto sales declined in the first four months of 2026 amid elevated fuel prices, foreign exchange volatility, and softer consumer demand, CAMPI now expects a smaller 5 percent to 8 percent decline for 2026, from its earlier 8 percent to 10 percent decline forecast, as supply and market pressures ease.

TMP continued to outperform, maintaining about 49 percent market share.

“Meanwhile, several legacy original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) continued to lose share amid a challenging demand environment, reinforcing the growing importance of fuel efficiency and electrification in purchasing decisions,” said Maybank.

While GTCAP benefits from TMP’s dominant market position and growing hybrid portfolio, the research house sees AC Mobility offers more direct exposure to electrification through BYD.

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