The Southeast Asian ecommerce market is on a strong upward trajectory, with potential to reach $289.8 billion by 2029, from $156.3 billion in 2024, a study conducted by payments platform 2C2P by Antom found Wednesday.

This represents a 13.2 percent of compound annual growth rate (CAGR) — the second-fastest globally, behind only India, the firm said in a statement.

Digital payments options such as domestic payments, mobile wallets and buy now, pay later (BNMPL) are projected to continue to eat into the transaction share of other alternative payment methods.

Its shares are expected to account for 97 percent of total e-commerce transactions by 2029, up from 89 percent in 2024, growing to $289.8 billion from $156.3 billion.

The strongest growth is expected in domestic payments (real-time payments and local bank-based payment schemes) and mobile wallets, particularly in markets such as Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam.

The domestic payments, i.e. real-time payment and local bank-based payment schemes, are expected to see 104 percent increase, reaching $92 billion in 2029 from $45.1 billion in 2024.

Domestic payments will then be the largest contributor to Southeast Asia’s digital payments sector in 2029, accounting for approximately 32 percent of the sector, replacing cards.

Mobile wallets is projected to see 107 percent boost, with a projection of $79 billion in 2029 from $38.2 billion in 2024. Mobile wallets will account for 27 percent of the ecommerce market in 2029, up from 24 percent in 2024.

BNPL may experience 174 percent growth and is expected to record $18.9 billion in 2029, from $6.9 billion in 2024.

With 56 percent of the region still uncarded, according to the World Bank, these tools are critical to reducing reliance on cash and expanding access to ecommerce.

Once-popular offline payment methods such as cash-on-delivery and ATM transfers are becoming legacy options, supported mainly by merchants dealing in niche product segments.

“By 2029, offline payment methods are expected to shrink to just 3 percent of total ecommerce payments, from 11 percent in 2024,” said the firm.

Meanwhile, small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) accounted for 57 percent of ecommerce in 2024, a share expected to rise to 58 percent in 2029, underscoring their growing influence within Southeast Asia’s ecommerce economy.

Across Southeast Asia, the survey finds that 66 percent of SMEs now sell online, reflecting growing participation in the digital economy.

However, uneven digital maturity persists, with one-third of SME respondents still relying heavily on cash in daily operations, even in more advanced markets such as Singapore.

This is due to persistent barriers such as integration complexity, fraud concerns, high fees and infrastructure limitations.

These challenges manifest differently across markets—ranging from infrastructure and connectivity gaps in Indonesia and the Philippines, to security and integration concerns in Singapore and Vietnam, and cost and regulatory pressures in Malaysia and Thailand—limiting SMEs’ ability to streamline operations and scale effectively.

A majority of 63 percent also note that their current payment systems require upgrades or replacement to support emerging payment trends.

While only 49 percent of SME respondents currently engage in cross-border trade, three quarters express plans to expand internationally within the next two years.

This ambition is especially evident in markets such as Indonesia and Thailand, where SMEs are prioritizing expansion into new customer segments.

The study estimated that enabling broader SME participation in cross-border e-commerce could unlock an additional $20.8 billion in sales by 2029, representing a 7.1 percent increase in regional e-commerce value.

“Southeast Asia’s businesses, and especially SMEs, are at the heart of the region’s economic growth—contributing more than 50 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in major markets and employing 64.6 percent of the workforce — but many are still navigating the complexities of digital transformation,” said Worachat Luxkanalode, Group Chief Executive Officer of 2C2P by Antom.

As payment ecosystems evolve rapidly across different markets, businesses of all sizes need solutions that can simplify operations, he sees support diverse local payment preferences, and enable them to scale across borders.

Southeast Asia’s Ecommerce market up 22.8 percent year on year to $157.6B in 2025 – Momentum Works