Maybank Investment Bank sees Sea‘s first quarter results reinforce its ability to sustain high growth while deepening structural advantages in e-commerce, logistics and digital finance.
“Sea reported strong first quarter delivery with Shopee GMV, Garena bookings and Monee’s loan book growing 30 percent, 20 percent and 71 percent year on year, respectively — broadly 2 percent to 22 percent ahead of street expectations,” the research house said in a note on Wednesday.
The group’s adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $1.03 billion was about 15 percent ahead of consensus, led by stronger-than-expected Garena profitability and resilient e-commerce margins despite continued investment in logistics and fulfilment.
Maybank retained its positive views on Sea as first quarter reinforced by Shopee’s strong execution, with 30 percent of GMV growth and stable quarter on quarter EBITDA margins despite elevated logistics and fulfilment investments.
“Importantly, we do not view TikTok Shop’s rapid growth as a major competitive red flag for Shopee at this stage, with both platforms continuing to raise commission rates — underscoring relatively rational competition,” it said.
Instead, it sees Shopee remains focused on reinforcing its core moats in logistics, fulfilment, delivery speed and ecosystem engagement.
It is noted that Shopee sees strong execution and GMV growth accelerated to 30 percent year on year on adjusted EBITDA margin of 0.6 percent during the first quarter, slightly ahead of street estimates despite elevated shipping subsidies and fulfilment investment.
Management sees limited competitive disruption from TikTok Shop, highlighting stable market share trends and continued focus on controllable execution drivers such as pricing, user engagement, assortment and Shopee VIP penetration.
Brazil remained Shopee’s fastest growing market in the first quarter while sustaining profitability, supported by more than 1 day improvement in delivery speeds, three new fulfilment centers (total: five) and more than 100 percent year on year growth in Shopee Mall GMV, which now contributes about 15 percent of Brazil GMV.
“Management reiterated FY26 guidance of about 25 percent GMV growth with EBITDA at least in line with FY25, although we see upside potential given the first quarter beat, stable competition and ad-led monetization expansion,” said Maybank.
The research house also noted that Monee continues to grow rapidly and is increasingly evolving into a scaled standalone fintech platform, supported by rapid off Shopee growth.
Monee maintained strong first quarter momentum, with revenue rising 58 percent year on year and loan book expanding 71 percent year on year to $9.9 billion.
Brazil’s loan book surpassed $1 billion, growing more than 250 percent year on year. Its non performing loan remained stable at 1.1 percent, reflecting disciplined underwriting despite rapid scaling.
Cash loans and off-Shopee PayLater account for about 50 percent of the portfolio, highlighting the growing contribution from off-platform ecosystems.
Its adjusted EBITDA of $275 million missed slightly due to mix shifts toward newer and lower-yielding markets, although management remains focused on absolute EBITDA growth rather than near-term margin optimization.
While management remains watchful on credit risk amid rising living costs, it continues to see healthy loan growth trends.
Meanwhile, Garena’s resilient performance highlights the durability of its gaming franchises despite a mature industry backdrop, said Maybank.
Garena delivered its strongest quarter since 2021, with bookings and adjusted EBITDA rising 20 percent and 25 percent year on year, respectively, driven by successful Free Fire IP collaborations such as Jujutsu Kaisen, and record Arena of Valor bookings.
Its adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 61.6 percent, supported by lower channel costs and seasonally lower e-sports spending.
Company expects bookings and margins to normalize in subsequent quarters following an exceptionally strong first quarter, although it remains confident of delivering double-digit FY26 booking growth.