It is hardly a Yes or No question amid the market fallout from tariff threats
The world woke up in a drastically different place on April 7th when Trump’s tariffs came into effect. The so-called Black Monday accurately captures the sentiment the tariffs brought upon global investors. It’s been reported that Bitcoin has nearly wiped out its entire gains since the day after Election Day. It is clear that the significant sentiment change was due to the global tariffs, with crypto suffering as collateral damage.
One of the most anticipated events in Q1 was The White House Crypto Summit. The summit, which brought together industry leaders such as Michael Saylor, and Brian Armstrong, along with policymakers, marked a significant step towards regulatory clarity and demonstrated the administration’s willingness to engage with the crypto community. Similarly, the SEC’s pro-crypto stance on stablecoins, such as dropping lawsuits and clarifying that most stablecoins are not securities, has provided a much-needed framework for innovation and growth, allowing investors to feel more secure in their investments. As a result, investors should expect more clarity on crypto regulations under Trump’s administration.
However, it is apparent that not all of Trump’s policies and orders have been well received by the crypto industry, as his tariff announcements have sent the total market cap tumbling down by around 20-30 percent since January. While Trump promised a U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, his plan didn’t excite the market after he stated that the reserve would grow from forfeited Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies instead of market purchases as investors had hoped.
It is important to acknowledge that the fallout from Trump’s tariffs has left markets shattered compared to their historic highs earlier this year. Investors and traders have entered a risk-off sentiment, placing US equities and cryptocurrencies into a negative trend. The US tariffs inflicted on its biggest trading partners have generated fear that the US economy could enter into a period of diminishing growth or possibly even a recession.
Yet, despite the market downturn, Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience and has rebounded repeatedly from the initial shock of Trump’s tariff announcements. So far, Bitcoin has never fallen to previous highs at $70,000, nor its previous cycle’s all-time-high of around $60,000. This is a testament to the underlying strength and fundamentals of the cryptocurrency, which has consistently demonstrated its ability to bounce back from adversity.
Meanwhile, altcoins and other blue chips have lagged behind, such as Ethereum, which failed to surpass its previous cycle’s all-time-high and has even fallen to 2018’s all-time-high at around $1,400. As the market continues to navigate the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs, Bitcoin’s quick rebound suggests that it may be poised for a strong recovery once the dust settles.
Following up a week later, investors regained some confidence as the stock market rebounded, and Bitcoin is poised for further jumps, aiming for a key level at $85,000. Investors would do well to keep a close eye on Bitcoin’s movements, as it may provide a leading indicator of the market’s overall sentiment and direction, although it does feel like riding on an endless roller coaster.
The recent dial back on Trump’s tariff threats has offered investors a moment of fresh air, despite the road to full recovery remaining unclear. Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience in times of crisis, and its store of value should be more praised from now on. Trump’s crypto policies, or his macro policies that indirectly influenced crypto, achieved mixed results, although it is still too early to call. One thing is certain is that he is the crypto market’s best hope to transform policies and regulations that will be critical for the next bull run.
With Contributions from Nick Ruck, Director at LVRG Research.
Yiwei Wang is a passionate blockchain enthusiast who aims to create interesting storytelling at the intersection of crypto, economics, and public policy. He navigated the complex landscape of the blockchain industry with effective financial communications and has worked with various industry leaders and companies.
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