Maybank Investment Bank said Wednesday that robust fintech will support elevated growth of ASEAN internet firms in 2025.
The research house said in a note that it thinks the 2024 tailwinds for the sector are mostly intact and likely to sustain into 2025.
“We estimate sector gross merchandise value (GMV), revenues and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to grow at 20 percent, 26 percent and 51 percent year on year in 2025, respectively,” it said.
Maybank expects the fintech segment to lead the revenue growth (up 32 percent year on year), helped by under-penetration, ecosystem advantage of e-commerce/on-demand and introduction of new services.
The fintech growth will be led by digital lending contributing to 2/3 of the business.
It is noted that digital lending penetration led by buy now pay later (BNPL), credit and digibank in ASEAN is at low-mid single digit levels and is forecasted to grow at 23 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over 2024 to 2030.
“We see internet names as well placed to outpace industry growth, leveraging their ecosystem flywheel,” said Maybank.
For 2025, it sees Grab’s fintech growth helped by roll out of digibank lending in relatively underpenetrated Indonesia, Malaysia.
Long term, it sees SEA’s digital financial services as well-placed given e-commerce-driven BNPL user growth which also gives a platform/data insights to deepen digital lending.
It noted SEA as well is aggressive in penetrating outside its ecosystem (off-Shopee) which should provide superior long term growth but comes with credit risk.
Despite the high base, Maybank expects e-commerce and on-demand revenues to grow 28 percent year on year and 16 percent, respectively, helped by robust ASEAN macro and rational competition enabling monetization opportunities to be slightly offset by macro/foreign exchange headwinds in Brazil and ride hailing new entrants.
The research house projected Shopee’s e-commerce GMV to grow 21 percent year on year in 2025, on 28 percent revenue growth, driven by higher seller take-rates and ad penetration.
Strong ASEAN GMV growth is supported by favorable macro, rational competition/new entrants – enabling further monetization, it said.
It noted in a few markets, seller take-rates are already up 0.3 percent to 3.3 percent in January.
On the other hand, macroeconomic and foreign exchange (real depreciated 22 percent in 2024, mostly in the fourth quarter) challenges in Brazil, contributing about 10 percent of Shopee’s revenues, may offset some gains.
Nevertheless, it opined that SEA’s diverse revenue base limits adjusted EBITDA impact to -2 percent to -6 percent even if the real depreciates 20 percent to 30 percent in 2025.
Meanwhile, Maybank expects on-demand services GMV to grow 14 percent year on year and revenue by 16 percent year on year in 2025.
“We do see some competitive headwinds with the entry of new ride-hailing operators in various markets, particularly Xanh SM entry in Indonesia,” said the research house.
However, it does not see similar risk with the food delivery business which contributes almost 2/3rd of on demand services GMV.
On the positive side, it sees deliveries GMV growth picking up slightly, aided by superior non-food growth such as quick-commerce, local services etc.
SEA: elevated e-commerce and digital financial services (DFS) momentum should be sustained in 2025
While Maybank see a double digit e-commerce GMV to sustain in 2025, it opined that SEA earlier monetization efforts could result in superior revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth.
It noted part of the the firm’s e-commerce GMV may be reflected in a superior DFS revenue growth.
It also highlighted that the firm’s gaming should slow down in 2025 due to absence of post Covid normalization which boosted 2024.
“All in, we expect the firm’s e-commerce GMV to grow 21 percent year, group revenues to grow 28 percent and adjusted EBITDA to grow 45 percent year on year. This places SEA within the fastest growing internet names globally,” it said.
Grab: steady on-demand growth; potential Grabfin acceleration
Maybank expects Grab on-demand GMV to grow 15 percent year on year, a tad slower than 2024 growth of 16 percent.
It expects the firm’s deliveries GMV to accelerate as post-Covid normalization is behind.
It also expects the firm’s mobility segment to see entry of multiple operators but still expect it to post a healthy 19 percent GMV growth.
Maybank also expects Grab’s financial services segment revenues to accelerate and losses to narrow.
“For 2025, we expect Grab to post 20 percent revenue growth, 87 percent adjusted EBITDA growth and a maiden net profit after tax (NPAT) of $277 million,” said the research house.
GoTo: revenue growth momentum continues
Maybank opined that GoTo is on track to achieve its path of profitability.
It is noted that the firm’s adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to IDR 72 billion ($4.44 million) (0% GTV) in the first nine months of 2024 – and target to achieve adjusted EBITDA break even point (BEP) by 2024.
GoTo also showed a positive development in in the first nine months of 2024, with on demand services GTV up by 11 percent year on year, and on demand services net take-rate improving to 17.2 percent as compared to 10.5 percent in the first nine months of 2023.
“GoTo is the most integrated local player in the new economy,
“We forecast FY25 GoTo revenue at IDR 17.3 trillion (+7 percent year on year), with the lending business contributing 29 percent of the revenue in FY25,” said Maybank.
It is noted that GoTo is aiming to double its lending growth by the first nine months of 2025 from IDR 4.3 trillion ($265.2 million) in the first nine months of 2024.
Maybank sees ASEAN internet players to lead growth ahead of global peers