UOB KayHian has on Wednesday raise Sea’s 2026/27/28 revenue forecasts by 3.9 percent/2 percent/2 percent and earnings forecasts by 3.7 percent/2.5 percent/0.4 percent, respectively, following the firm’s strong third quarter results.

“The upgrades reflect improved monetization at Shopee, continued growth in Monee’s loan book and sustained momentum at Garena, partly offset by higher marketing expenses and credit-loss provisions,” the research house said in a note.

According to UOB KayHian, Sea’s third quarter results reinforce the growth outlook across all three segments.

Firstly, Shopee’s stronger monetization supports sustainable earnings growth. Improving advertising revenue, take rates and logistics efficiency suggest a better balance between growth and profitability.

Meanwhile, record gross merchandise value (GMV) and stronger adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) reinforce management’s $1 billion 2026 EBITDA target, while further monetization gains and ShopeeVIP adoption should support margins.

Secondly, Monee’s expansion beyond Shopee broadens its growth runway, although credit risks remain.

UOB KayHian highlighted that continued growth in off-Shopee lending and deeper customer engagement should expand its addressable market and strengthen its position as a standalone financial-services platform.

However, rising non-performing loans (NPLs) and higher credit loss provisions highlight the need for disciplined risk management to sustain earnings growth.

Thirdly, Garena’s established franchises continue to support earnings growth. Recovering bookings and strong EBITDA growth demonstrate the resilience of Free Fire and Arena of Valor, supported by ongoing content updates and user engagement, said the research house.

While existing franchises remain the main earnings contributors, successful diversification into new titles could reduce dependence on Free Fire and strengthen the sustainability of Garena’s longer-term earnings profile, it added.

Sea announced Tuesday that its third quarter revenue surged 43 percent year on year to $8.58 billion.  Its profit after tax and minority interests (PATMI ) came in at $491 million, soaring 32 percent year on year.

For the nine months period, the firm’s revenue and PATMI reached $23.47 billion (+46 percent year on year) and $1.36 billion (+15 percent year on year) respectively, representing 79 percent and 80.5 percent of UOB KayHian’s forecasts, supported by growth across all three core businesses.

Sea’s adjusted EBITDA also increased by 29 percent year on year to $931.3 million, while gross margin improved 2.5 basis points year on year to 45.9 percent, despite higher marketing expenses and credit loss provisions.

According to the research house, Shopee has reported strong GMV growth and improving monetization support profitability.

Its third quarter GMV reached a record $39.7 billion (+23 percent year on year, +4 percent quarter on quarter), while revenue grew 41 percent year on year to $6.07 billion, driven by a 51 percent year on year growth in core marketplace revenue and over 55 percent year on year advertising revenue growth.

Its generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) take rate improved to 15 percent from 13 percent a year ago.

ShopeeVIP membership exceeded 21 million, contributing nearly 25 percent of GMV. Its adjusted EBITDA rose 45 percent year on year to $269.2 million, supported by improving unit economics.

“The company remains on track to achieve approximately 25 percent GMV growth and $1 billion adjusted EBITDA in 2026,” said UOB KayHian.

According to the research house, Monee also sees strong credit expansion continues,
although asset quality softens.

Its third quarter revenue rose 63.9 percent year on year and 15.6 percent quarter on quarter to $1.62 billion, while loans outstanding expanded 60 percent year on year and 12.8 percent quarter on quarter to $12.6 billion.

Its active credit users increased by around 28 percent year on year, supported by deeper customer engagement and credit use cases beyond Shopee.

However, its non performing loan ratio increased to 1.3 percent from 1 percent in the second quarter of 2026, reflecting some softness in Thailand and Brazil.

Its adjusted EBITDA grew 15.5 percent year on year and 3.6 percent quarter on quarter to $298.3 million.

“Management has proactively tightened underwriting criteria for selected customer segments to manage credit risks,” said UOB KayHian.

Meanwhile, Garena’s bookings recover sequentially with stronger profitability.

Its third quarter bookings increased 5.9 percent year on year and 16.6 percent quarter on quarter to $890 million, recovering from the moderation in the second quarter of 2026.

Its quarterly paying users rose 4.1 percent year on year to 68.6 million, while the paying-user ratio improved to 10.2 percent from 9.8 percent in the third quarter of 2025.

Its revenue grew 28.6 percent year on year to $840.1 million, while adjusted EBITDA surged 45.9 percent year on year and 11.9 percent quarter on quarter to $458.2m, reflecting stronger monetization and operating leverage.

Free Fire remained the key earnings driver, supported by successful collaborations including Naruto Shippuden, while Arena of Valor maintained engagement through its 10th anniversary celebrations.

Sea’s revenue surges 43.4 pct year on year in Q3 as Shopee hits record high