Maybank Investment Bank expects efficiency gains to accelerate the path to profitability of PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk (GoTo), and it projects the firm’s adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of IDR 1.5 trillion in FY25.
The research house said in a note on Tuesday that it thinks the firm’s on-demand services (ODS) growth momentum will continue, and lending will be a fintech growth driver for the firm.
It also expects the firm’s service fee to increase by 15 percent year on year to IDR 715 billion in FY25 (versus IDR 622 billion in FY24) and consolidated revenue will rise by 11 percent year on year to IDR 17.6 trillion in FY25.
It is noted that Goto’s ODS gross transaction value GTV rose 13 percent year on year to IDR 63 trillion in FY24, and Maybank expects an 11 percent rise to IDR 70 trillion in FY25.
According to the research house, GoTo maintained a gross take rate of 22 percent and reduced its promotions, translating to a higher net take-rate of 17.4 percent in FY24. Maybank forecasts 17.3 percent in FY25/26.
“We think cost efficiency will help ODS to be profitable, and we project adjusted EBITDA of IDR 900 billion in FY25 (versus the company’s target of IDR 1.1 trillion),
“Based on our ground checks, Go-Jek’s price is more rational than its peers, yet gross transaction value (GTV) can grow. Hence, the strategy is working, but momentum is subject to macro dynamics,” it said.
It is noted that the firm’s lending book hit IDR 5.2 trillion, with revenue of IDR 705 billion, translating to an average monthly yield of 4.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Maybank forecasts Goto’s FY25 lending to reach IDR 8 trillion, with lending revenue of IDR 3.3 trillion (average yield: 4 percent).
“We expect lending to lift its fintech revenue, which we forecast at IDR 5.4 trillion (+48 percent year on year), and improve profitability, as we forecast FY25 adj. EBITDA of IDR 734 billion (versus GoTo’s target of more than IDR 300 billion),” it said.
The research house continues to like GoTo due to the integrated tech-enabled ecosystem in Indonesia, continued growth momentum, and path of profitability due to efficiency.
Meanwhile, it noted the service fee from Tokopedia is a bonus and protects GoTo from cash-burn marketing expenses.
Risks to the firm, however, include competition and macro-related risks.