Maybank Investment Bank has expected e-commerce competition in Singapore to remain stable and growth elevated in the second half. However, it sees ride hailing services may see softness owing to higher fuel prices.
The research house said in its recent report that into the second half, it sees macro softness, fuel prices and foreign exchange as the key factors to watch in Singapore’s internet sector, although the implications differ for Sea and Grab.
For Sea, it said softer consumer conditions may be relatively constructive for Shopee, as consumers increasingly gravitate towards e-commerce platforms perceived to offer better value, wider assortment and stronger promotions.
Competition also appears stable, with recent seller commission increases by both Shopee and TikTok Shop suggesting rationalization rather than renewed subsidy intensity, it added.
It said Shopee Brazil may also see a World Cup-related growth spurt, supported by higher traffic, merchandise demand and promotional activity.
“Artificial intelligence (AI) disintermediation remains an investor concern, but our expert discussion suggests AI agents could reinforce, rather than weaken, marketplaces by increasing the importance of catalogue depth, fulfilment, payments, reviews and trusted transaction infrastructure,” it noted.
For Grab, Maybank said higher fuel prices and softer ASEAN macro could weigh more directly on mobility demand and driver economics.
“We expect mobility growth to moderate to mid-teens from low-20 percent levels last year,” it said.
Foreign exchange is another watch point for both USD-reporting companies, given IDR/PHP softness, said Maybank.
“Sea appears relatively better shielded, supported by Garena earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and meaningful non-ASEAN contributions from e-commerce and fintech,” it added.
It is noted that ASEAN internet names delivered strongly in the first half of 2026, but share-price performance remained disconnected from fundamentals.
Both Sea and Grab corrected around 30 percent to 35 percent despite first quarter results that were ahead of expectations, reflecting investor concerns around AI disruption, competition, regulation and margin durability.
Sea’s first quarter reinforced its multi-engine growth profile, with Shopee gross merchandise value (GMV), Garena bookings and Monee’s loan book growing 30 percent, 20 percent and 71 percent year on year, respectively; while group adjusted EBITDA was about 15 percent ahead of consensus.
Grab also continues to show resilient operating leverage, with GMV/revenue expected to grow around 20 percent/18 percent year on year and adjusted EBITDA up 44 percent year on year, supported by rational competition and mobility profitability.
“However, investors remain cautious. On Shopee, key worry has been whether AI agents could pressure marketplace discovery and advertising, whether TikTok Shop and local competitors could reignite subsidy intensity,
“Grab faced Indonesia’s commission cap headwinds and the debate that the 8 percent cap is confined to 2W mobility or expand to four wheels (4W)/food delivery, and whether fuel inflation could pressure Grab’s margins,” said Maybank.
The research house believes these concerns are understandable, but largely over-discounted given strong execution, resilient unit economics and attractive valuations.
Overall, Sea remains preferred pick for Maybank.
“Amidst soft macro, consumers gravitate to ecommerce, which is seen to offer more value for money,
“AI disintermediation risk is overstated and we see stock is trading at worst case AI disruption scenario,” said the research house.
Sea stands out as AI transforms ASEAN digital economy – Maybank