Maybank Investment Bank said Tuesday that regulatory push is slowing the Indonesia’s tech giant GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GoTo)‘s path to profitability.

“GoTo was moving in the right trajectory in the first quarter of 2026 with net profit of IDR 257 billion, but we view the regulatory push as impacting short-term operations and profitability,” the research house said in a note.

It is noted that the Indonesian government plans to set the on-demand services (ODS) take rate at 8 percent under the regulation which relates to online driver protection.

“We have limited insight into the regulatory details, but according to the media and the company’s explanation, it is highly likely to impact two-wheeler (2W) mobility,” said Maybank.

It is also noted that GoTo has responded by ending the subscription fee for drivers in the ‘Langganan Gacor’ program, which offers higher turnover for drivers on ‘Go-Ride Hemat’ with a zero-take rate.

Based on media reports, management said that GOTO will continue its value-for-money service, ‘GoRide Hemat’ for customers, but with price adjustments for consumers.

According to Maybank, the ODS business’s sustainability is subject to four factors: gross transaction value (GTV) growth, gross take rate, marketing and promotions, and operating expenses.

“We view rising global fuel prices as the primary risk to both supply (higher fares) and demand (potentially lower purchasing power),” said the research house.

Still, it has not incorporated the subsidized fuel price hike into its assumptions.

Mainly, it thinks the government will continue providing subsidized fuel, especially for 2Ws (the primary driver fleet in both mobility and delivery).

“While management does not guide GTV, we expect pressure on buying power to affect growth: we trim our GTV forecasts by 11/14 percent to IDR 69/72 trillion in FY26/27E (+4.3 percent year on year in FY26/27),” said the research house.

Despite news that the 8 percent take rate is only in 2W mobility, Maybank assumed an 8 percent take rate for both 2W and 4W, as the 4W driver may demand the same treatment.

Moreover, it did not have official information on the composition of 2W and 4W.

It also assume GoTo can keep 20 percent of the gross take rate in delivery.

Hence, it assumed a gross take rate of 17.4 percent/15.6 percent/15.7 percent in FY26/27/28 (vs. the prior assumption of 22.2 percent in FY26/27).

Maybank also viewed the lower take rate as a catalyst for the company to improve its efficiency.

It is assuming GoTo will trim its marketing expenses to 3.5/2/2 percent of the GTV in FY26/27/28 (versus 4 percent in FY25; no official guidance for FY26).

Moreover, it predicted 10/8 percent operational cost cutting of IDR 10.5/9.7 trillion in FY26/27, equal to 15/13 percent of GTV (versus 17.6 percent in FY25).

“We view this as an industry issue (driven by regulatory push) and assume Goto will achieve cost efficiency. On a positive note, this can translate to healthier pricing,” said the research house.

Maybank also believed management is adjusting to the unique regulatory environment, which could lead to higher volatility both operationally and in terms of its financials.

Nevertheless, it expects a lower take rate to drag ODS to an IDR 873 billion operating loss in FY26, and it anticipates a gradual recovery of IDR 178/350 billion in FY27/28.

“Meanwhile, we expect an adjusted earning before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) loss of IDR 684 billion and a gradual recovery to IDR 378 /650 billion in FY27/28 (versus management’s target of IDR 1.7-1.8 trillion adjusted EBITDA in FY26, pre-regulation push),” said the research house.

It is noted that GoTo Financial (GTF) net revenue contributed about 32 percent of the group’s FY25 revenue, driven by lending, which accounted for 62 percent of GTF’s gross revenue in FY25.

Maybank forecasts GTF net revenue at IDR 7.4/8.3/8.9 trillion in FY26/27/28.

“We view this as a profitable business due to higher economies of scale,” said the research house.

It also projected its operating profit of IDR1.1/1.8/2.3 trillion in FY26/27/28, translating to adjusted EBITDA of IDR 1.5/2.1/2.6 trillion in FY26/27/28 (versus management target of IDR 1.4-1.5 trillion in FY26).

Meanwhile, Tokopedia’s service fee in the first quarter of 2026 hits IDR 288 billion (+33 percent year on year, and Maybank expects it to reach IDR 1 trillion in FY26 (versus its old forecast of IDR 822 billion).

The research house also expects the service fee to increase by 8 percent in FY27/28.

Indonesia’s GoTo reports first-ever quarterly net profit, $12.7M, in strong start to 2026