Singapore-based Grab Holdings‘ record quarter has signaled growing shift In Southeast Asian food retail, BMI Country Risk and Industry Research said Wednesday.
The research house said in a note that Grab’s delivery revenue growth of 23 percent to $510 million is notable in that it signals that on-demand food and grocery delivery has moved beyond pandemic-era adoption into a structural consumer habit, with demand accelerating even as rising fuel costs push up the underlying cost base.
“For food and drink specifically, this reinforces our view that quick-commerce and restaurant delivery are capturing a growing share of household food spending across the region, compressing margins for traditional brick-and-mortar food retailers and fast-food operators that lack last-mile delivery infrastructure of their own，” it said.
Meanwhile, growing delivery volumes while increasing driver incentives (rather than passing fuel costs through to consumers) suggests that platform pricing power remains constrained, which will weigh on take rates for food and beverage merchants reliant on these platforms as a sales channel.
For e-commerce more broadly, the 24 percent rise in on-demand gross merchandise value points to a consumer base that is increasingly habituated to platform-intermediated purchasing, a trend that favors integrated super-apps over standalone e-commerce marketplaces, said BMI.
The $600 million Foodpanda acquisition in Taiwan, China in March 2026 extends this competitive dynamic beyond Southeast Asia, giving Grab a delivery footprint in a mature food-service market where convenience-store and ready-meal culture already supports high-frequency on-demand ordering, it added.
BMI foresees that on-demand food and grocery delivery will continue to gain share of total food and drink retail sales across South East Asia, with Grab’s full-year guidance of 20 percent to 22 percent revenue growth providing a useful proxy for the pace of channel shift.
It noted the key question for the consumer and retail sector is whether this growth is additive (expanding the overall market) or substitutive, cannibalizing in-store food retail and dine-in restaurant spending.
“Early evidence suggests a mix of both, but we expect the substitution effect will intensify as platforms deploy AI-driven personalization to increase order frequency and basket size, effectively locking consumers into on-demand purchasing routines,” it said.
BMI also highlighted that the Foodpanda integration in Taiwan, China will be an important test case for whether Southeast Asian delivery economics can translate to a higher-cost, more saturated market.
However, BMI noted that prolonged regional fuel-price spike remains the principal risk for the company but also the region, where sustained cost inflation would either compress platform margins further or force price increases that could slow consumer adoption, particularly amongst the lower-income demographics that have driven recent volume growth across the region.
Grab earlier reported first quarter revenue of $955 million, a 24 percent year on year increase (19 percent on a constant-currency basis).
Its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) rose 46 percent to a record $154 million, while net profit expanded from $10 million to $120 million.
Its on-demand gross merchandise value grew 24 percent, reflecting broad-based strength across Grab’s three pillars: deliveries (revenue up 23 percent to $510 million), mobility (up 19 percent to $337 million); financial services (up 43 percent to $107 million).
The company’s management attributed the performance to platform resilience, noting that the business had thrived ‘despite the macroeconomic climate’ across South East Asia, where elevated fuel costs have squeezed driver-partner margins.
To offset this pressure, Grab had increased on-demand incentives during the quarter.
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