A new study by the UK-based Juniper Research projects that spending on agentic commerce will reach $1.5 trillion by 2030, rising from early pilot deployments expected in 2025 and 2026.
The figure can go up from $8 billion of total agentic commerce transaction value in 2026, Juniper Research noted.
The report indicates that, despite strong anticipated growth, trust remains the primary barrier to wider adoption. While advances in artificial intelligence are expected to improve product discovery and increase the use of AI agents, agentic commerce is likely to complement rather than replace traditional e-commerce checkouts in the near term.
As part of the study, Juniper Research also released its 2026 Competitor Leaderboard for agentic commerce payments infrastructure providers. The top three companies were Mastercard, Visa, and Stripe. The ranking evaluated 14 providers based on their capabilities in enabling agentic transaction processes and their involvement in emerging protocols.
According to the report, early participation in these frameworks has given leading companies an advantage as the ecosystem develops. However, the study highlights that the fragmented nature of the global payments landscape—characterized by numerous local payment methods—poses a significant challenge for providers. At the same time, it presents an opportunity for companies that can successfully integrate diverse payment options to capture early market share.