The proposed $600 million acquisition of foodpanda Taiwan gives Grab entry into a structurally attractive on-demand market with meaningful food delivery scale and long-term optionality in adjacent verticals, Maybank Investment Bank said Tuesday.
The research house said in a note that Taiwan offers an attractive on-demand entry point for Grab as foodpanda Taiwan generated $1.8 billion in GMV in 2025 with only 10 percent user penetration, while the market remains largely a rational 2-player structure.
It noted foodpanda also brings meaningful scale, with 67 percent user reach and PandaPro subscribers accounting for one in three users and over half of GMV.
“A strong macro backdrop — 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 9 percent and an upgraded 2026 growth forecast of 7 percent — supports demand, while over time Taiwan’s app-based mobility and emerging AV/smart-mobility ecosystem could create additional optionality for Grab’s tech and operating stack,” it added.
In near term, Maybank opined that Grab’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) is likely to be diluted by front-loaded integration, migration and tech unification costs through 2026-27, although management still expects group deliveries margins to improve year on year and Taiwan to turn profitable by end-2027.
Longer term, it said Grab is guiding for at least $60 million of incremental adjusted EBITDA by 2028, with potential for Taiwan to move towards a 4 percent+ deliveries margin thereafter.
“On that basis, the deal implies roughly 10 times FY28 enterprise value (EV)/EBITDA, versus Grab’s own about seven times of trading multiple — not optically cheap, but reasonable if execution unlocks growth, density and cross-market synergies,” said Maybank.
According to the research house, management said higher oil prices mainly pressure driver earnings and supply, and Grab is offsetting this near term with targeted driver incentives and fuel support, while keeping fares stable to protect demand.
If elevated fuel costs persist, management may gradually pass some of the burden to consumers without undermining volume, and has reiterated 2026 EBITDA guidance.
“Our view is that within the mobility segment, fuel cost is around 20 percent to 40 percent of driver income, and as such higher fuel costs, if 50 percent absorbed by Grab, may negatively impact group 2026 adjusted EBITDA by about 17 percent, while a prolonged oil shock could also create demand risk,” said Maybank.
Factoring in the transaction, the research house raised Grab’s food delivery gross merchandise value (GMV) estimates by 4 percent to 10 percent for FY26-28, while tweaking earnings forecasts by about 7 percent to 2 percent to reflect both integration costs and longer-term EBITDA upside.
“We also raise Grab’s target price to $6.48. With Grab down about 29 percent year to date, we see the recent sell-off as creating a more attractive entry point,” it said.
It forecasts Grab’s 2024 to 2027 estimated on-demand GMV compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18 percent and adjusted EBITDA CAGR of 50 percent.
“We expect its take-rates to remain relatively stable. We forecast free cash flow (ex working capital changes) of $440 million in FY25,” it added.
According to Maybank, structural growth drivers are in place in an underpenetrated ASEAN market, and Grab has leadership position in all the markets it operates in and enjoys structural scale advantage.
“We see mild growth headwinds and monetization pausing owing to: take-rates are already in line-high vs global peers; rising cost/inflation pressures weighing on consumers’ discretionary spending and driver-partners’ take home earnings are non-competitive,” it said.
Maybank, however also sees risk of a slight flare-up in competitive intensity with a better capitalized Gojek and XanhSM’s entry into multiple markets.