Maybank Investment Bank has foreseen competitive easing to supports Sea‘s margin improvement outlook.
The research house said in a note on last Sunday that recent developments across Shopee-operated markets signal broad-based competitive rationalization, easing investor concerns around margin pressure.
It is noted that starting Mar-26 MELI will adjust logistics/shipping fees in Brazil, increasing fees on items priced BRL49–79 ($9.24-$14.89) by 14 percent to 21 percent for packages under 3 kg, with smaller hikes above BRL79 ($14.89) — effectively rolling back some of the heavy subsidies introduced during last year’s intense competitive escalation.
In 2025, aggressive shipping incentives across platforms drove investor concerns regarding margin sustainability in Brazil.
Against this backdrop, Shopee’s recent move to raise commissions on low-AOV items initially appeared counterintuitive in a still-competitive market, creating short term confusion.
However, MELI’s latest actions provide important validation that competitive behavior is normalizing across the ecosystem, said Maybank.
Meanwhile, early January, renewed concerns emerged around Shopee after J&T Express, TikTok Shop’s (TTS) key logistics partner, reported about 80 percent in ASEAN parcel volume growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, fueling fears of aggressive competition.
However, TTS has since raised seller commission rates in Indonesia — its largest ASEAN market — by a blended 0.8 percentage points (ppt) from 8.8 percent to 9.6 percent.
Post-hike, Maybank estimates TTS’s blended take rate is about 55 basis points (bps) higher than Shopee’s, signaling a shift towards more rational competition.
“This should help ease competitive concerns across ASEAN,” said the research house.
More structurally, with Lazada continuing to cede share, it sees ASEAN e-commerce converging into a 2-player market, supporting improved monetization and profitability by 2027.
Meanwhile, Taiwan is Shopee’s most profitable market and Coupang’s aggressive entry and high cash burn initially raised concerns for Shopee.
However, Maybank said Coupang now faces mounting challenges, including a major cyberattack in Korea that could result in penalties of $770 million, alongside the recent resignation of its group Chief Executive Officer and Taiwan head, heightening execution risk.
“These issues have arisen at a critical phase of overseas scaling. Importantly, our channel checks suggest Coupang’s competitive intensity in Taiwan softened in late 2025 versus mid 2025,
“We view these developments as positive for Shopee, easing competitive pressure and reinforcing profit sustainability in its most profitable market,” said Maybank.
Maybank has projected SEA’s FY24-27 revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25 percent, driven by all its three business segments.
The firm’s adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) is expected to grow at a 42 percent CAGR, helped by e-commerce business and digital financial services.
It is noted that the firm’s cash balance as of the second quarter of 2025 stood at $10.6 billion.
Sea is a Singapore-founded internet company with businesses in digital entertainment, e-commerce, and digital financial services. It has dominant e-commerce market share in ASEAN and Taiwan
Maybank estimated Sea’s ASEAN gross merchandise value (GMV) to grow at a 19 percent CAGR over 2030.
“The firm’s own logistics and strong balance sheet remains key competitive moat,
“Risk of TikTok disruption is abating while cross-border platforms have unfavorable unit economics in ASEAN,” said the research house.
Although Sea’s gaming business is highly dependent on Free
Fire, Maybank sees it is a defensive franchise with its position in less crowded and budget conscious emerging markets.
According to the research house, Sea’s upside factors included stronger-than-expected user growth (across all businesses); share buybacks; seller take rate increases and ad penetration leading to better than expected margins improvements.
Its downside risks, however, include weaker-than-expected consumer spending in the region amid macro uncertainties hurting Shopee’s GMV growth; slowing user growth metrics, especially if this is due to increasing competition across Southeast Asia’s offerings; higher-than-expected credit costs for SeaMoney due to a slowdown in economic growth; new entrants which could intensify competition in the Southeast Asia e-commerce industry.