Maybank Investment Bank has maintained its neutral view on the Thailand’s tech-services sector as it sees a balance of positive and negative factors in FY26.

The research house said in a note on Wednesday that a key positive factor for the sector should be a recovery in private-sector investment, driven by the lack of trade-war uncertainty and higher demand for artificial intelligence (AI) projects.

On the other hand, negative factors are an expected decline in government projects and sub-2 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth (Maybank’s house view is 1.7 percent GDP growth).

Maybank forecasts the Thailand tech-service sector’s core profit growth to ease from 12 percent in FY25 to 1 percent in FY26.

Excluding SKY (which relies heavily on govt projects), the sector’s core profit growth should rise from 2 percent in FY25 to 12 percent in FY26, on the back of recovery in private-sector investment.

Growth drivers for FY26 private investment are the lack of trade-war uncertainty (investments stalled in April to August 2025 as firms awaited tariff clarity); and higher demand for AI projects (workflows automation and pattern analysis).

Maybank also expects the Thai government information technology (IT) capital expenditure (capex) to stall in the first half of 2026 because the caretaker government is prohibited from committing to large-scale projects and projects without the parliament’s approval prior to the House dissolution.

“Our house view anticipates an election in February and a new government formation in May, implying government capex will likely rebound in the second half of 2026,” said the research house.

Maybank expects Anutin to return as Prime Minister following 2026 general election, expected in early Feb 2026.

This is based on its expectation that his Bhumjaitai (BJT) party will win the 2nd most seats in the Parliament, ahead of Pheu Thai (PT) and just behind the People’s Party (PP).

It expects BJT to lead the formation of a majority conservative camp.

It also expects BJT to lead the next government formation with support of Pheu Thai.

“We see this as the most likely scenario and the only way for Thailand to form a stable government going forward,” it added.

According to Maybank, Anutin is seen as the middle-of-the-road candidate that faces the least opposition from either the left and the right.

The second most likely scenario is for BJT to form a government with the People’s Party.

However, it thinks this could happen if BJT wins more seats than PP or PP lets BJT lead the government.

“We do not think BJT will join PP if PP were to lead the government,” it noted.

While People’s Party will likely win the most seats, Maybank does not expect it will be able to lead the government formation.

According to the research house, most other parties would likely find PP’s policies as being too radical.

They could also worry that a PP-led government would be unstable with potential court cases against its party members (as has happened to past iterations of the party).

That said, there exists a 3rd scenario (however unlikely) whereby PP and PT join hands to form the government.

“In our view, this would be the worst-case scenario as the government would likely be highly unstable,

“Given we only expect Pheu Thai to come in third place (or possibly lower down the rank), we do not think it will have a chance to lead another government formation,” it added.

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