Maybank Investment Bank believes both Sea and Grab are prioritizing growth over the medium term, which may weigh on margin expansion.

The research house said in its recent report that Sea’s e-commerce arm Shopee is investing in fulfillment infrastructure, expanding its subscription-based VIP program, and remains open to new markets in the Latin American (Latam).

“These initiatives—combined with subsidies, vouchers, and reinvested take-rate increases — highlight a growth first approach,

“Competitive pressures in Taiwan (Coupang) and Brazil (MELI/Amazon) further suggest that margin improvement is likely to be slower than previously expected,” said the research house.

Meanwhile, Lazada remains a swing factor to monitor. According to Maybank, if Lazada continues to cede market share at the 2025 pace, Shopee could see an additional
3 to 4 percentage points uplift to ASEAN gross merchandise value (GMV) growth in 2026.

However, it noted this contribution would diminish significantly by 2027 as Lazada’s scale becomes less meaningful.

“Conversely, if Lazada stabilizes and returns to growth, Shopee’s ASEAN GMV trajectory may face incremental pressure as the Lazada-driven tailwind dissipates,” it added.

Maybank also highlighted that Grab’s strong growth is likely to continue in a landscape of competitive discipline, with key rivals such as Food Panda and Gojek maintaining rational behavior.

While competition remains measured, the research house expects Grab to pursue gradual margin improvement, reinvesting in affordability initiatives to expand its addressable market and funding strategic technologies such as autonomous vehicles for the future.

It is noted in the first nine months of 2025, Shopee delivered 26 percent year on year gross merchandise value (GMV) growth despite a high 2024 base.

However, Cube Asia data indicates that the combined GMV growth of the top three ASEAN e-commerce platforms (Shopee, TikTok Shop and Lazada) was only 13 percent, as Shopee and TikTok Shop continued to gain share at Lazada’s expense.

“Competitive dynamics remained stable, with all platforms collectively lifting seller take rates by 4 to 5 percent through multiple rounds of increases,” said Maybank.

According to the research house, financial services — partially linked to e-commerce activity — grew even faster, with Shopee’s loan book up 82 percent year on year in the first nine months of 2025.

Despite scale benefits and higher take rates, Shopee’s margins softened from the first quarter to the third quarter, leading to downward revisions in street margin expectations.

Grab also recorded a strong 2025, with on-demand GMV up 20 percent year on year in the first nine months of 2025 (versus 15 percent in the first nine months of 2024), enabling multiple guidance upgrades.

Its financial services arm saw similarly robust momentum, with the loan book rising 65 percent year on year.

“Grab continued to outperform the market, as its key competitor GoTo posted only 10 percent year on year on-demand GMV growth,

“Grab’s margins improved across segments. Potential consolidation with GoTo remains a key investor focus—particularly after Grab raised $1.5 billion in convertible notes despite a strong cash position — though both companies have formally denied merger discussions,” said Maybank.

The research house has buy call on Grab but downgraded Sea to a non-consensus hold call recently on slower margins improvement concerns.

“For Grab, despite a slightly slower margins improvement, we expect its FY25-27 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 47 percent amidst rational competition,” said Maybank.

Besides strong organic growth potential, the research house sees two more potential catalysts for Grab – the adoption of autonomous vehicle (AV) pick-ups and a potential merger with GoTo.

It noted that under an optimistic ‘blue sky’ scenario, an AV rollout could provide a 7 percent boost to Grab’s net present value (NPV).

Furthermore, if Grab were to acquire Gojek alone, the resulting synergies could generate an NPV of $2.4 billion.

For Sea, Maybank said it awaited a clearer path to margins recovery while competitive skirmishes in Taiwan and Brazil remain a concern.

“We forecast Shopee adjusted EBITDA-to-GMV margins to only improve 20 basis points (bps) per year in 2026–27,

“Monee (DFS) margins are likely to fall 170 bps over two years due to lower interest yields and higher sales and marketing (S&M) spend, while Garena margins face pressure from growth investments,” it said.

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