Maybank Investment Bank said in its recent report that the Indonesia’s new economy is still on a growth trajectory.

“We view the new economy outlook as positive. Google, Temasek, and Bain & Company project ecommerce revenue in Indonesia to increase from $71 billion in FY24 to $140 billion in FY30 with on-demand services (ODS) (transport & food) up from $10 billion in FY24 to $16 billion in FY30, online travel up from $9 billion in FY25 to $17 billion FY30, and online media from $9b in FY25 to $15 billion in FY30,” said the research house.

However, it noted that the competition level is fragmented, with Gojek-Tokopedia (GOTO) focuses on the on-demand (transport and food delivery) and Fintech, competing with Grab.

Meanwhile, it said that Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) withdrew from the consumer to consumer (C2C) marketplace and focuses on gaming, retail, and investments.

“In e-commerce, we foresee tight competition between Shopee, TikTok Shop/and Tokopedia,” it added.

Related to mobility, the research house viewed Grab as the strongest competitor for Go-Jek (GOTO), with Bluebird and Xanh SM as key players in four wheelers.

On food delivery, it sees expansion by Shopee Food, which is targeting a select group with targeted marketing, leveraging its user base from e-commerce.

“All in all, we view the landscape will remain competitive in FY26, with promotions as the growth driver for the industry,

“We also view Gojek-Tokopedia (GOTO) as on-track. We think growth momentum will continue, projecting revenue at IDR 20.2 trillion ($1.2 billion) in FY26,” it said.

Despite the competitive ODS market, Maybank expects its gross transaction value (GTV) of IDR 77 trillion ($4.59 billion), with a net take rate at 18.2 percent in FY26.

“We view that Fintech will also provide long-term opportunities, as we see ample growth in lending,

“Meanwhile, we believe cost initiatives will continue in FY26, projecting consolidated adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of IDR 1.9 trillion ($113.28 billion) in FY26,” said the research house.

It sees GOTO as top pick in the sector, driven by growth momentum, and as the company is still on track to achieve profitability.

“Moreover, speculation about potential mergers with Grab will likely remain a key discussion in FY26,” it added.

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