Maybank Investment Bank has raised Indonesian tech platform GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GoTo)’s core net income forecasts for FY25/26 by 9 percent/1 percent due to results house-keeping.

The research house said in a note on last Wednesday that it views the firm’s first half results as inline – revenue up 11 percent year on year to IDR 8.6 trillion ($523.92 million) (49 percent of its FY25 estimate), operating loss narrowed to IDR 172 billion as operating expenses were down 8 percent year on year to IDR 8.6 trillion (49 percent of FY25 estimate).

“We think that on-demand services (ODS) and its fintech arm GTF would continue their growth momentum, and expect cost efficiency to continue,” said the research house.

It is noted that Goto ODS’ gross transaction value (GTV) rose 13 percent year on year to IDR 32 trillion in the first half (46 percent of Maybank FY25 estimate), with food
delivery’s GTV at IDR 20.1 trillion (+12 percent year on year) and mobility at IDR 11.9 trillion (+13 percent year on year).

ODS net take rate has consequently improved to 18.7 percent (versus 17.2 percent in the first half of 2024).

While the overall growth momentum is subject to macro dynamics, Maybank believes Go-Jek’s pricing strategy would support its expansion.

“We forecast GTV to rise by 11 percent year on year to IDR 70/77 trillion in FY25/26 respectively and upgrade our net-take rate assumption to 18.5/18.2 percent for FY25/26 (from 17.3 percent),” it said.

Meanwhile, GTF net revenue was IDR 1.4 trillion in the second quarter of 2025 (+76 percent year on year, +12 percent quarter on quarter), bringing first half to IDR 2.6 trillion (+82 percent year on year), achieving 48 percent of Maybank’s FY25 estimate.

With consumer loans at IDR 6.6 trillion in the first half, and revenue at IDR 1.6 trillion, this translated into an average monthly yield of 4.2 percent in the first half.

“We view this as on-track as we forecast IDR 8 trillion loan outstanding as at end-FY25E, and IDR 3.3 trillion lending revenue (average yield: 4 percent) for FY25,

“We forecast GTF net revenue to rise 52/15 percent year on year to IDR 5.4/6.2 trillion in FY25/FY26E respectively, and estimate GTF’s operating profit at IDR 183/356 billion in FY25/26 (versus IDR 216 billion loss in the first half),” said the research house.

Maybank said it continues to like GoTo due to its integrated tech-enabled ecosystem in Indonesia, continued growth momentum, and path of profitability due to efficiency.

Indonesia’s GoTo reaffirms 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance after record breaking performance