Thailand’s investment boom driven by the global artificial intelligence (AI) expansion is helping its economy withstand the energy shock stemming from the Middle East conflict, but the benefits remain concentrated in a narrow range of industries, according to the Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).
In a commentary on Wednesday, AMRO said Thailand could turn the investment momentum into a more sustainable source of economic growth by strengthening domestic supply chains, accelerating technology adoption across industries and broadening investment beyond digital infrastructure.
Such efforts would help reverse the country’s prolonged decline in potential economic growth and accelerate its transition to high-income status, it said.
Thailand’s economy grew 2.4 percent in the first half of 2026, supported by robust private investment, which expanded 11.6 percent as investment commitments in electronics and digital infrastructure began translating into actual spending.
The investment pipeline also remained strong, with applications to Thailand’s Board of Investment (BOI) in the digital sector reaching 1.12 trillion baht in the first half of 2026, already exceeding the 746 billion baht recorded for the whole of 2025.
AMRO projected Thailand’s economy to grow 2.4 percent in both 2026 and 2027, while headline inflation is expected to ease from 1.8 percent this year to 1.3 percent next year.
However, the regional economic research organization cautioned that the growth outlook remained vulnerable because the economy was increasingly dependent on foreign-backed investment, technology exports and government spending.
Traditional industries continued to face pressure, while subdued household incomes and declining lending to smaller businesses were limiting the breadth of the recovery.
The economy also remained exposed to external uncertainties, including fluctuations in energy prices, changes in trade policies and a potential slowdown in the global technology cycle.
AMRO noted that Thailand’s limited fiscal headroom could further constrain its ability to respond to future economic shocks, with public debt approaching the statutory ceiling of 70 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).
It said broadening the sources of economic growth was therefore essential to making the recovery more resilient.
Beyond the near-term outlook, AMRO said the current investment wave presented Thailand with an opportunity to reverse a three-decade decline in its potential growth rate, which has fallen from about 7 percent before the Asian Financial Crisis to below 3 percent currently.
The slowdown reflects several structural challenges, including weaker investment following the financial crisis, an ageing population that has increasingly constrained labor supply and slower movement of workers from agriculture into more productive sectors.
Agriculture still accounts for 28 percent of Thailand’s employment but contributes less than 9 percent of its GDP, highlighting the productivity gap between sectors.
AMRO said reversing the decline would require stronger capital accumulation and faster productivity growth to offset the impact of demographic changes. The global AI boom could support both objectives, provided Thailand can extend the benefits beyond a relatively small group of technology-related industries.
Thailand is positioned to benefit from the global AI expansion, given its established role in supplying components used in data centers and other digital infrastructure.
Global producers operating in the country already manufacture several data-center components, with hard-disk drives produced in Thailand since the 1980s and optical components since 2000. Exports of AI-enabling goods increased by about 50 percent in 2025, reflecting the country’s growing participation in the global technology supply chain.
The construction of new data centers is also generating demand for domestic services, including construction, electricity, telecommunications and engineering.
However, AMRO warned that the economic benefits were not guaranteed, as data centers typically import most of their high-value equipment. This means a substantial portion of investment spending flows overseas rather than contributing to domestic economic output.
Data centers also generate relatively few direct employment opportunities despite requiring significant amounts of electricity, water and supporting infrastructure.
To ensure the investment boom generates wider economic benefits, AMRO outlined three priorities for Thailand.
The first is to strengthen domestic supply chains by helping more local companies become suppliers to global technology producers.
AMRO said supplier development programs, technology partnerships and industry-specific training could help domestic firms meet the technical and quality standards required by multinational companies, allowing them to move into higher-value activities.
Large Thai companies could also play a role in helping small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) upgrade their capabilities through procurement arrangements and technology networks.
In addition, the organization recommended regularly assessing investment incentives against measurable outcomes, including domestic value added, skills development and technology transfer, to ensure that incentives deliver greater economic spillovers.
The second priority is to expand access to cloud computing and AI services as Thailand increases its data-center capacity.
Wider access to these technologies could help businesses, particularly SMEs, improve production processes, logistics and service delivery, allowing productivity gains to spread beyond the technology sector.
However, AMRO said this would require reliable digital connectivity, a skilled workforce, sufficient competition and sound data governance, alongside support for businesses seeking to adopt practical AI applications.
The third priority is to extend the investment recovery beyond AI-related industries to create a broader and more sustainable growth base.
AMRO noted that investment spillovers were already emerging in sectors such as energy, logistics, automation and robotics, providing opportunities to expand the recovery into other parts of the economy.
Thailand could build on this momentum by sustaining investment in electric vehicles and their supply chains, while upgrading established industries such as food production and agribusiness.
Improving access to credit for viable businesses, strengthening competition and facilitating the movement of workers and capital towards more productive activities would also encourage more companies to invest and expand.
The growing electricity requirements of data centers could provide another opportunity to accelerate energy-sector reforms. As these facilities require uninterrupted power supplies and increasingly rely on renewable energy, reforms such as direct power purchase agreements and third-party access to the electricity grid could help improve the country’s energy system and support productivity across the wider economy.
Over the longer term, AMRO said these measures could address two structural constraints behind Thailand’s economic slowdown: weak capital accumulation and modest productivity growth.
Under its baseline scenario, Thailand’s potential growth is expected to remain at around 2.5 percent to 3 percent annually between 2026 and 2035 before weakening further. The country is projected to achieve high-income status only after 2050.
However, stronger investment could improve the outlook. Under an alternative scenario in which capital accumulation broadens, potential growth could average around 3 percent, bringing Thailand’s transition to high-income status forward to around 2046.
The outlook could improve further if productivity growth also accelerates. AMRO estimated that if productivity growth doubled to about 2 percent annually, potential growth could exceed 4 percent from 2028, allowing Thailand to reach high-income status around 2040, more than a decade earlier than under the baseline scenario.
AMRO stressed that these scenarios were illustrative outcomes rather than forecasts, highlighting the importance of policy implementation in determining the country’s longer-term growth trajectory.
It said the global AI boom represented an opportunity rather than a guarantee of sustained economic progress. If investment remained concentrated in capital-intensive projects with limited domestic supply-chain linkages, the benefits could be confined to a temporary increase in capital accumulation without generating lasting productivity improvements.
However, strengthening local suppliers, developing workforce skills, expanding digital technology adoption and building a more reliable and cleaner electricity system could help Thailand secure longer-term benefits that extend beyond the current AI investment cycle.
The forthcoming 14th National Economic and Social Development Plan could provide a timely framework for coordinating and implementing these measures while the investment opportunity remains open, AMRO said.
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