Singapore’s electric vehicle (EV) transition is entering a more mature, policy-dependent phase, with sales forecast to rise 34.3 percent in 2026 as government incentives, cheaper models from China and expanding charging infrastructure support adoption, BMI Country Risk And Industry Research said on Thursday.
The Fitch Group unit forecasts EV sales will reach 34,940 units this year, lifting EVs’ share of total vehicle sales to 54.6 percent.
The EV fleet is expected to expand to 92,705 units, equivalent to 10.7 percent of Singapore’s total vehicle fleet, BMI said in its latest industry analysis.
As of June 2026, EVs accounted for 70 percent of new vehicle registrations, while adoption reached a record 62.4 percent of new car registrations in the first half of the year, up 110 percent year on year.
BMI expects the growth momentum to continue, although at a slower pace, with EVs forecast to account for 44 percent of Singapore’s vehicle fleet by 2035. EV sales are projected to make up 85 percent of total vehicle sales by then.
The research house said government tax incentives remain a key driver of demand. Singapore’s EV Early Adoption Incentive, which runs through December 2026, provides new electric cars and taxis with a 45 percent rebate on the Additional Registration Fee, capped at S$7,500 ($5864) in 2026.
The Enhanced Vehicular Emissions Scheme (VES), meanwhile, provides rebates of up to S$22,500 for qualifying cars in 2026 and S$20,000 in 2027.
From 2026, the VES band thresholds were recalibrated to align with stricter real-world measurements under the Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicles Test Procedure. BMI said the changes will affect the rebates and surcharges applicable to new vehicle registrations.
The influx of more affordable EV models, particularly from Chinese manufacturers, is also supporting adoption.
BYD accounted for 25 percent of the passenger vehicle market in the first half of 2026, compared with 12.5 percent for Toyota, according to BMI.
In the first quarter, BYD represented 24.3 percent of new vehicle registrations, with 3,239 units, making it the market leader.
EVs accounted for 57.6 percent of new car registrations in the first quarter, or 7,679 vehicles. This marked the first time EV sales exceeded combined sales of internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicles, BMI said.
In June alone, EVs accounted for 70 percent of new vehicle registrations, with 4,791 units.
Despite the rapid increase in adoption, BMI expects passenger EV sales growth to moderate over the longer term. Sales are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 5.3 percent between 2026 and 2035, reflecting Singapore’s car-lite strategy, which prioritizes public transport and limits vehicle ownership.
High vehicle ownership costs, alongside well-developed public transport and micro mobility options, are expected to cap the overall size of the passenger vehicle market.
BMI said continued expansion of charging infrastructure will therefore be important to sustaining EV adoption.
Singapore had about 30,500 EV charging points as of March 2026, nearly double the roughly 15,300 recorded in November 2024.
The government aims to install 60,000 charging points by 2030 under the Singapore Green Plan 2030, including 40,000 in public car parks and 20,000 at private properties such as residential developments and offices.
The charging network is also becoming more competitive. There were 36 EV charging operators in Singapore as of July 2026, although BMI expects consolidation as operators compete in an increasingly crowded market.
In June, SP Mobility completed its acquisition of ChargEco, integrating more than 1,000 public charging points and making it the operator of Singapore’s largest EV charging network, according to BMI.
Singapore also raised its national EV charging standard in March 2026 from Technical Reference 25 to SS 722. The new standard includes requirements covering smart-grid integration, electrical safety, battery-swapping protocols and updated direct-current fast-charging specifications.
Commercial vehicles are also expected to contribute to the transition. BMI forecasts commercial EV sales to rise 18.5 percent in 2026 to 2,652 units, following 63.4 percent growth in 2025.
Commercial EV sales are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 8.4 percent from 2026 to 2035. Growth is expected to be supported by increasing pressure on businesses to decarbonize supply chains, government and municipal fleet electrification, and improvements in charging infrastructure.
The government’s Commercial Vehicles Emissions Scheme, which runs until March 2027, provides incentives of up to S$20,000 for the least-polluting commercial vehicles and penalties of up to S$15,000 for the most polluting.
For heavy vehicles, the Heavy Vehicle Zero Emissions Scheme provides businesses with incentives for registering new zero-tailpipe-emission heavy goods vehicles and buses.
The incentive was reduced to S$15,000 from September 2026, except for vehicles with a maximum laden weight above 7,000kg, following strong take-up and a narrowing cost gap between zero-emission vehicles and internal combustion engine models.
BMI expects Singapore’s electric heavy commercial vehicle segment to remain relatively small, at about 212 units in 2026, but forecasts this to rise to 1,131 units by 2035.
The electrification of Singapore’s bus fleet is also expected to provide medium-term support for commercial EV demand.
However, consumer concerns could temper the pace of adoption. A 2026 study cited by BMI found that about 32 percent of respondents planned to purchase an internal combustion engine vehicle over the following two years, up from 26 percent in 2024.
Concerns over charging availability and hidden costs were among the factors cited for the shift in sentiment.
BMI forecasts Singapore’s total EV fleet to more than triple between 2026 and 2035, reaching 382,462 units and accounting for 44 percent of the country’s vehicle fleet.
At the same time, Singapore’s strong public transport network will continue to limit the overall growth of private vehicle ownership.
The country’s MRT, light rail and bus networks recorded an average of 7.2 million daily rides in 2023, while authorities aim for at least 80% of households to be within a 10-minute walk of a train station by 2030.
The government also targets 75 percent of peak-hour journeys to be made by public transport, reinforcing the role of public transport alongside EV adoption in Singapore’s broader strategy to reduce transport emissions.
BMI therefore expects Singapore’s EV market to continue expanding, but with future growth increasingly dependent on the continuation of incentives, charging infrastructure development and fleet electrification rather than a broad-based expansion in private vehicle ownership.
EVs overtake combustion cars in Singapore first quarter sales