Maybank Investment Bank estimated Atome to contribute about $200 million to $220 million of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) to Grab Holdings by 2028.
The research house said in a note on Wednesday that Grab’s $1.49 billion acquisition of a 60 percent stake in Atome marks its largest financial services transaction to date.
“Based on Grab’s targets, we estimate Atome could contribute about $200 million to $220 million of EBITDA by 2028, implying about 12 times of FY28 enterprise value (EV)/EBITDA based on our estimated ultimate consideration,” Maybank said, adding that this is well above the about 7 times paid for Stash and most fintech peers, but broadly comparable with Affirm at 12.6 times and below PayTM at 30 times.
Based on management’s 2028 guidance, Atome and Superbank are expected to contribute about 300 million of additional EBITDA, with financial services EBITDA targeted at $500 million by 2028.
The research house views the valuation as full rather than excessive. Importantly, the
premium valuation requires Grab to successfully leverage Atome’s underwriting technology, merchant relationships, and consumer-lending infrastructure across its much larger ecosystem.
According to the note, management’s strategic rationale rests heavily on ecosystem benefits.
Atome brings more than 22 AI applications, over 100,000 underwriting variables, 131 credit models, and more than 30,000 merchant relationships, while Grab already has 138 million annual transacting users, of whom only about 1 percent currently borrow.
“The opportunity is compelling: combining Atome’s lending infrastructure with Grab’s distribution, proprietary data, and potentially lower-cost funding,” said Maybank.
However, it noted Grab’s Financial Services expansion has increasingly involved acquisitions, including Validus, Stash, Superbank, and now Atome.
The key execution test is whether these independently operated businesses can generate the ecosystem synergies needed to justify the capital deployed.
Notably, Grab’s upgraded 2028 guidance appears largely driven by the direct earnings contribution from Atome and Superbank, rather than by explicitly quantified ecosystem benefits.
While management repeatedly highlighted higher engagement, stronger merchant relationships, and increased lending penetration as strategic advantages, Maybank said these benefits do not appear to be separately reflected in the guidance framework.
“Consequently, investors are effectively being asked to underwrite a portion of the acquisition thesis based on longer-term strategic benefits that remain difficult to quantify today,” said the research house.
Meanwhile, Maybank noted that Grab’s upgraded $1.7 billion FY28 adjusted EBITDA target includes about $360 million of incremental EBITDA contribution from acquisitions, partly offset by about $160 million of additional investment.
“In our view, this spending is primarily driven by management’s growing conviction in affordability
and grocery/retail, rather than being required to support Atome,” said the research house.
It therefore sees it as a deliberate decision to reinvest acquisition-led earnings upside into standalone growth opportunities.
“While this could expand Grab’s addressable market and support stronger growth beyond
2028, it lowers the near-term earnings flow-through from Atome, Superbank, and Foodpanda Taiwan, and raises the execution bar for achieving the upgraded target,” said Maybank.
Maybank also maintains its buy rating and $5.40 target price on Grab, supported by improving core profitability and financial services, which provides additional medium-term earnings optionality.
However, it noted the Atome acquisition introduces capital-allocation and execution risks, while a potential reduction in Uber’s 13.5 percent stake in Grab remains a technical overhang.
“The acquisition arguably strengthens the case for an eventual Uber exit, as Grab becomes increasingly focused on financial services and moves further away from Uber’s mobility-centric strategy,
“This risk is partly mitigated by Grab’s intention to execute about $900 million of additional share buybacks over the next 12 months, providing meaningful capacity to absorb secondary-market supply. At the current valuation, we believe these risks are increasingly reflected,” said Maybank.
It is noted that Maybank has previously highlighted the risk of a potential reduction in Uber’s
13.5 percent stake in Grab, whether driven by a broader ASEAN strategy, capital requirements associated with the Delivery Hero acquisition, or a diminishing strategic rationale as Grab evolves into a more fintech-oriented platform.
“The Atome acquisition arguably strengthens the latter argument, as Grab’s future growth is increasingly linked to consumer lending, digital banking, and financial services rather than the mobility-focused business that Uber exited in 2018,
“This poses an additional technical overhang for Grab, given the potential for excess share supply, as was seen when SoftBank partially exited in 2024,” said the research house.
That said, Maybank believes the technical risk is partially mitigated by Grab’s enlarged share-repurchase program.
Management intends to complete approximately $900m of share repurchases over the next 12 months, providing a meaningful source of demand should secondary shares come to market.
“While an eventual Uber sell-down could still create a temporary liquidity overhang, the company’s balance-sheet strength and ongoing buyback activity should help absorb part of the excess supply and reduce the risk of a prolonged valuation dislocation,” said the research house.