Factoring in the firm third quarter results and with momentum likely to sustain in a seasonally strong fourth quarter, Maybank Investment Bank has raised FY25 Grab‘s adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) forecast by 3 percent.

The research house said in a note on Wednesday that it, however, trimmed Grab’s forward adjusted EBITDA forecasts by 1 percent to 3 percent by factoring in a slightly slower pace of improvement in margins given the larger growth tilt towards product innovation and affordability initiatives.

“Still we expect its adjusted EBITDA for FY24 to FY27 to expand by 50 percent of compound annual growth rate (CAGR) on the back of 18 percent of gross merchandise value (GMV) growth and scale effect amid soft competition,” said Maybank.

Maybank also cuts Grab’s full year profit forecasts by 7 percent to 13 percent.

While Grab’s delivered a strong beat in the third quarter and management raised its guidance, Maybank believes the recent share price correction of Grab reflects concerns over potentially softer FY26 adjusted EBITDA growth, driven by management’s increased focus on growth initiatives.

“Assuming margins stabilize at the same level as the first nine months of 2025, then we expect adjusted EBITDA to range from $630 million to $650 million, which is 11 percent to 13 percent below street and our FY26 expectations,” said the research house.

However, Maybank sees these conservatism is not in sync with management’s qualitative commentary around forward incentives (likely to stay at current levels), flywheel effect and on the ground soft competition.

“While the focus appears to be on growth over margins, historically management had been conservative with its guidance, similar to this year’s pattern,” it noted.

According to Maybank, Grab continues to expand its monthly transacting user (MTUs) through product-led innovations, with Saver tiers, GrabUnlimited, and GrabMore driving a 14 percent year on year increase in MTUs and 27 percent year on year growth in transaction frequency, achieved without increased incentives.

GrabMore, enabling users to add grocery items to food orders at no extra delivery cost, is proving highly effective in converting food users to grocery buyers (GrabMart growing 1.5 to 1.7 times faster than food delivery).

Shared logistics, overlapping customer bases, and GrabUnlimited subscriptions further boost stickiness.

With groceries representing only 10 percent of delivery GMV, the Mart segment offers a long growth runway.

Meanwhile, competition remains soft (GoTo on-demand services GMV +2 percent year on year, EBITDA up more than 2 times), allowing Grab to strengthen its flywheel.

Grab raises full year guidance after Q3 revenue up 22 percent on year