Maybank Investment Bank has expected a strong third quarter for Southeast Asia’s superapp Grab, with more than 20 percent gross merchandise value (GMV) growth and higher
margins, potentially prompting upward guidance revisions by management.

The research house said in a note on Tuesday that its forecasts Grab’s GMV growth of 20 percent/18 percent year on year in FY25/26, supported by offerings that focus on affordability, and service expansion (eg, dine-outs and GrabMart) even as consumer sentiment weakens in Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines.

“Competition remains stable, while early moves to introduce autonomous vehicles position Grab ahead of peers to capture future adoption in markets such as Singapore,” it said.

Maybank also raised Grab’s revenue estimates by 1 percent to 3 percent for 2025-27 but trim its earnings estimates by 4 percent to 5 percent.

It also said the firm’s robust fintech growth should persist, driven by merchant expansion (ecosystem lending) and the ongoing digibank push.

Meanwhile, Maybank estimates Grab’s third quarter GMV increased 21 percent year on year, at a similar rate as the second quarter, the fastest pace in the past three years.

“Deliveries topped the growth (22 percent year on year) while mobility also likely grew at a firm rate of 19 percent year on year,” said the research house.

Unlike the second quarter, it expects the growth was accompanied by a lower increase in incentives, allowing for firm monetization.

“As such, we expect deliveries and mobility margins inched up 20-23 basis points quarter on quarter in the third quarter,” said the research house.

It also expects its Fintech momentum remained firm with 61 percent loan book growth, while losses likely narrowed marginally.

“All in all, we expect third quarter revenue and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) increased 27 percent and 43 percent year on year, respectively,

“Our third quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA estimates are 5 percent to 7 percent ahead of the street’s,” it added.

Maybank also sees potential for upward revision in Grab’s guidance with the third quarter results.

“With the expected third quarter revenue growth, we estimate its nine months period already achieved 74 percent of the upper end of management’s guidance,” said the research house.

Helped by stable competition and the company’s push for affordable offerings, Maybank expects on-demand momentum to remain firm in the seasonally high fourth quarter.

In addition, it expects its fintech revenue to accelerate in the fourth quarter, helped by Digibank push.

“Our revenue and adjusted EBITDA forecasts for are still 1 percent to 5 percent above the street’s,” it noted.

Grab achieves $20M profit in the second quarter amid higher revenue