Vietnam’s e-commerce market is demonstrating the highest growth optimism in Southeast Asia, even as it navigates the region’s most significant regulatory challenges, a new report by Blackbox Research revealed on Wednesday.

According to “The Next Leap for E-Commerce in Southeast Asia” report, 69 percent of experts say new tax compliance rules — particularly Value-Added Tax (VAT) withholding — have created short-term operational challenges for smaller online sellers adapting to new requirements, rather than long-term setbacks.

Yet despite this turbulence, 85 percent of experts express strong confidence in Vietnam’s long-term growth potential — signaling that the country’s entrepreneurial dynamism, robust logistics networks, and adaptive digital businesses are powering optimism even amid such short-term pain.

Meanwhile, experts rate Vietnam as more competitive than its regional peers in several core areas that underpin digital growth, including its logistics and fulfilment infrastructure (84 percent), platform competitiveness (77 percent), and innovation in the buyer experience (70 percent).

These results highlight the country’s strong foundations and the rapid progress of its digital commerce ecosystem, which continues to benefit from agile entrepreneurs, tech-driven sellers, and a maturing platform economy.

However, this strength is starkly contrasted by its greatest weakness.

In regulatory openness and flexibility, only 39 percent of experts view the country as competitive.

These scores signal that, while platforms and sellers are innovating rapidly, policy frameworks have not kept pace, creating frictions that can disproportionately affect small and medium enterprises (MSMEs).

“What we see in Vietnam is a story of remarkable resilience. It shows the strongest growth optimism in the region, fueled by exceptional business adaptability and a deep confidence in its fundamentals,

“But this paradox—high optimism contrasted with significant regulatory friction—isn’t just happening in Vietnam but for all Southeast Asia too,” said David Black, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Blackbox Research.

According to him, it proves the entrepreneurial spirit is strong in the region, but to truly thrive, it needs a better framework.

“The solution is clear: we must dismantle the digital roadblocks that hold back thousands of small businesses,” he added.

It is noted that this period of adjustment is also viewed as a crucial phase in Vietnam’s regulatory modernization journey.

New tax and compliance measures have understandably introduced short-term disruptions for some smaller sellers adapting to new requirements.

However, experts agree that, in the long run, these reforms can strengthen transparency and build a more stable environment for cross-border growth — particularly if accompanied by continued capacity-building initiatives that help MSMEs adapt effectively.

Meanwhile, Vietnam’s experience mirrors broader regional bottlenecks.

Across Southeast Asia, nearly half of regional experts (48 percent) cite regulatory fragmentation such as inconsistent, overlapping, or unclear policies, as the single biggest barrier to regional e-commerce growth, followed by high logistics costs (37 percent), limited digital capabilities and resource constraints of small businesses (28 percent), and an ecosystem-wide trust deficit (17 percent).

In comparison, only less than 10 percent mentioned platform policies and seller dynamics as a challenge.

According to the report, Vietnam’s case illustrates how the region’s opportunities and its obstacles are intertwined.

It showed urban-rural delivery divide as around 80 percent of Vietnam’s e-commerce revenue comes from Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, revealing how geography limits nationwide inclusion.

It also showed cross-border friction as inconsistent customs and tax rules make it costly for MSMEs to expand beyond domestic markets.

It also showed regulatory complexity as new laws often create uncertainty — a problem mirrored in other neighboring markets like the Philippines and Malaysia.

Together, these issues illustrate why experts view Vietnam as both a warning and a blueprint — a market that could set the tone for Southeast Asia’s next stage of digital integration if it balances enforcement with enablement, said the report.

While harmonizing cross-border regulations remains a major opportunity, experts emphasize that Vietnam’s e-commerce potential reaches far beyond regional trade.

The sector is becoming a central engine of the country’s broader digital economy transformation, driving innovation in logistics, payments, and MSME enablement that strengthens both local competitiveness and regional connectivity.

The Blackbox report identifies five strategic levers for platforms, policymakers, and MSMEs to accelerate this transition.

Together, these levers underscore how Vietnam’s domestic progress and ASEAN integration can reinforce each other, positioning the country as a pivotal node in Southeast
Asia’s digital future.

The five levers are: sustained platform investment; innovation-driven service excellence; multi-stakeholder collaboration; fixing logistics vulnerabilities; smarter and more agile regulation.

Firstly, platforms are evolving from marketplaces into ecosystem architects and “eDistributors” — entities that connect sellers not only to buyers but also to compliance, logistics, and payments infrastructure.

85 percent of experts agree that platforms must expand their role in building these digital highways, helping small businesses overcome resource and technical barriers.

In parallel, 43 percent identify training and upskilling as critical areas for shared investment.

For Vietnam, this means scaling digital literacy and fulfilment readiness so that local entrepreneurs can fully participate in — and benefit from — the broader digital
economy.

Secondly, as Vietnam’s digital consumers demand faster, more personalized experiences, innovation must move beyond marketing to reshape core business operations.

Experts highlight that platform-embedded AI should extend into fulfilment, inventory management, and customer service, helping MSMEs achieve parity in reliability and trust with larger brands.

This shift from cost competition to value creation will be key to building durable consumer trust and long-term competitiveness.

Thirdly, over half of experts (57 percent) view collaboration between platforms, government, and MSMEs as “non-negotiable”.

The report calls for a co-investment approach where each player contributes to shared priorities that sustain the digital economy’s momentum.

Platforms build the digital highways that connect sellers to consumers and logistics networks; governments clear regulatory roadblocks and enable fair, consistent policy execution; and MSMEs invest in their own digital readiness through upskilling and adoption of new tools.

Experts identify three joint-investment priorities—logistics infrastructure, digital payments, and MSME capability-building — as essential to turning ambition into impact.

For Vietnam, this means ensuring that collaboration is not confined to urban centers but extends across provinces, enabling small sellers everywhere to benefit from a more inclusive and competitive e-commerce ecosystem.

By deepening this shared commitment, Vietnam can transform collaboration into co-creation—building the practical foundations for sustained digital growth.

Fourthly, logistics remains one of Vietnam’s most decisive levers for both domestic inclusion and regional competitiveness.

Experts note that targeted public–private investment in infrastructure and technology can transform long-standing logistics challenges into a durable competitive advantage.

Expanding last-mile delivery networks, inter-provincial fulfilment capacity, and pickup–drop-off points will help reduce costs, shorten delivery times, and open new consumer and seller markets across the country.

Fifthly, experts agree that continued regulatory streamlining and alignment will benefit not only e-commerce but Vietnam’s entire digital ecosystem.

Simplifying tax and customs processes, piloting regulatory sandboxes, and promoting evidence-led policymaking can accelerate innovation while maintaining fairness and trust.

The report also highlighted that Vietnam’s e-commerce ecosystem stands at a pivotal moment.

If policymakers can pair regulatory reform with the same innovation mindset that defines its sellers, the country could become the blueprint for ASEAN’s digital integration — where agility, trust, and cross-border inclusivity converge, it noted.

As the Blackbox report concludes, achieving this will require platforms, policymakers, and MSMEs to move in lockstep — building the digital highways, clearing the bureaucratic roadblocks, and equipping sellers to thrive regionally.

It emphasized that the message from experts is clear – optimism is not enough; it must now be matched by integration.

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