Despite structural headwinds in traditional Western markets, Maybank Investment Bank sees Chinese e-commerce platforms are demonstrating adaptability through logistics optimization, business model evolution, and strategic regional pivoting, and ASEAN, in particular, offers a compelling growth runway, driven by rising digital adoption, underpenetrated retail markets, and improving platform economics.

In a note on Monday, the research house cited panelists including Catherine Lim, Head of Asian Equities, Bloomberg Intelligence, and Hussaini Saifee, Head of ASEAN TMT Research, Maybank Investment Banking Group in Invest ASEAN-Malaysia 2025 forum that the removal of the US de minimis duty exemption, previously set at $800, has raised entry barriers for Chinese exporters, contributing to a slowdown in cross-border e-commerce (CBEC) volumes to the US, which remains a key market (37 percent of China’s cross-border e-commerce [CBEC] exports in 2024).

In response, China is accelerating bilateral trade diversification efforts to sustain export momentum and production output, it noted.

It highlighted that near-term challenges persist, particularly as new markets require longer ramp-up times due to logistical and regulatory complexity.

However, Maybank said the ASEAN region remains a key strategic focus for Chinese platforms, underpinned by geographic proximity, favorable digital adoption trends, and underpenetrated e-commerce potential.

It noted that Shopee maintains market leadership in the region with about 52 percent share, while TikTok Shop is gaining traction. Lazada, however, continues to cede market share.

“Competitive dynamics remain rational, with platforms raising seller commission rates in recent years,” it said.

It also noted that new entrants such as Temu and Shein have limited disruptive impact due to high shipping costs and relatively low average basket sizes in ASEAN.

It added that both companies are adjusting their business models, Temu has moved towards partial consignment and warehouse partnerships, while Shein is expanding its offering beyond fast fashion toward a third-party marketplace model.

Survey data cited during the session also pointed to encouraging consumer and seller sentiment in ASEAN.

Despite inflationary pressures and a shift towards essential goods, online channels continue to benefit from price advantages over offline retail.

Sellers, too, remain largely supportive of platform fee hikes, suggesting minimal margin stress.

That said, average basket sizes are expected to remain flat or decline, reflecting a widening user base skewed toward price-sensitive consumers.

Separately, Indonesia’s ride-hailing and food delivery segments remain healthy, supported by rational pricing behavior.

Speculation of a potential GoJek-Grab consolidation, if realized, may create a more disciplined operating environment in the mobility and delivery verticals, according to the note.

Maybank sees strong AI growth potential in ASEAN amid modest VC funding